Author: XY

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

One Year into the Bear Market

It took me some time to convince myself: we are in a bear market, and it has lasted for about a year.

November 2024 is the market's excitement period, and the issuance of $TRUMP has pushed the market into extreme euphoria, marking the last carnival that no one wanted to believe.

Below, I will explain my viewpoint.

It all starts with the old saying: "History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

This foolish saying has caused significant misguidance in market analysis and has been detrimental.

It has led us to form path dependence while also causing us to lose our ability to question.

Yes, this reliance on historical patterns for predictions is like viewing the world through a prism etched with old patterns, inevitably misreading the new realities of the present and ultimately leading us to overlook the latest driving factors in the market. This is the root of the danger.

More specifically, we have misread two fundamental changes.

Change One

We once thought that the Meme frenzy was the spark that ignited the altcoin season, but in reality, the Meme frenzy itself is the altcoin season.

When Meme coins surged one after another, we thought everything was just beginning.

Some talked about an altcoin season, and some bold individuals even mentioned a raging bull market.

We were all wrong.

It is important to note that in every previous cycle, there has been a phenomenon of bubbles stacking on top of bubbles, usually driven by new narratives. These new narratives give rise to new markets, which often lead to differentiation.

This differentiation is crucial because it divides liquidity into two distinct groups.

The first group is the "dumb money."

This type of capital is characterized by a preference for simple operations, market depth, and low investment, always remaining in tokens with strong liquidity.

The second group is the "hot money."

This type of capital actively seeks returns and is willing to overcome complexity to find opportunities.

The subsequent short-term rotations of hot money created a bullish trend, which eventually evolved into what people call the altcoin season.

However, this cycle has never produced such a trend. There was no new narrative to explore this time.

Because from start to finish, these two groups remained in the same arena.

Dumb money could easily participate without effort, while hot money could still profit through early positioning.

Our mistake was thinking that there would be a so-called "altcoin season" this time.

But in fact, it does not exist.

The only path for the market is: from Bitcoin to new narratives, then to the altcoin season.

This was the script you wanted.

But the reality is that the Meme frenzy has become the anticipated altcoin season.

November 2024 marks the peak of profits for most traders, and TRUMP is the pinnacle of market euphoria.

Change Two

Bitcoin is no longer dominated by the internal crypto market but is instead governed by institutions and the macro market.

The macro environment follows a different timeline and reacts differently to various changes.

After the surge of TRUMP, many interpreted Bitcoin's resilience as a sign that the market was still in a consolidation or bull market correction phase.

This interpretation stems from an anchoring bias: people are accustomed to using the experience from past cycles where Bitcoin had to plummet to confirm a bear market, applying it to a market structure now dominated by institutions.

This cognitive framework is outdated.

Bitcoin has actually detached from the native market cycle of cryptocurrencies.

Recognizing this, the subsequent developments become logical.

The bear market began after the MEME coin TRUMP, regardless of Bitcoin's price performance.

So, stop fixating solely on Bitcoin.

Since January 2025, the market has fully experienced three stages: anxiety, denial, and panic. If you have made a profit, you can clearly see these stages reflected in those around you; if you have incurred losses, then you have personally experienced these emotions.

We are now in the stage of anger and gloom.

So, why am I writing this post?

Two reasons.

First, one of the reasons the crypto market has allowed me to profit is the ability to buy near the bottom. If I misjudge the market phase, this advantage will no longer exist.

If you believe the bear market is not over, you will continue to wait for the bottom to arrive, unaware that you are already in it.

Secondly, I hope this viewpoint can spark intense debate or help people become alert and break free from erroneous cognitive frameworks.

I have a high level of confidence in this judgment.

That is why I will soon begin to prove my judgment through action.

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