So far, Bitcoin has shattered several support levels.
🔴 Q4'24 + Q1'25 highs (breakout, retest, rebound)
🟢 August & Sept. 2025 lows (pivot reversal)
🔵 Mid-May & June 2025 lows (pivot reversal)
I'm also showing the 200-day MA cloud, but all other relevant moving averages that I consistently use (21-day EMA, 55-day EMA, 100-day EMA, 365-day EMA, and various weekly EMAs) have also broken down.
I'm aware that the 200-day MA cloud hasn't acted as clean support over the course of this bull market, as I've acknowledged several times in the past.
But here's the thing...
Those breakdowns below the 200-day MA cloud were shallow (average decline of -8%) and short-lived, with price managing to reclaim the cloud rather quickly.
Also, look at the slope of the cloud.
It shifted from an upward slope to a downward sloping for the first time since 2022.
That shift is telling us that the trend has changed.
In other words, the uptrend has (likely) become a downtrend.
So whether we're talking about structural or dynamic levels, we've seen a key shift in the behavior of Bitcoin.
Contrast that with price action in 2023 through Oct. 2025, where support levels were generally holding (or breakdowns were short-lived) and price was making higher highs. Even if price was making short-term lower highs and lower lows, those were just bull flags that produced breakouts to new highs!
In other words, bullish setups WERE working, but they aren't anymore.
Instead, price is slicing through structure, consolidating, then experiencing downside continuation.
As such, I expect this latest pivot level $80.6k - $84.8k to break down.
Why?
Because I believe we're in a bear market.
And bear markets produce lower lows.
This means that prior pivot lows get invalidated!
It's not rocket science... it's just price structure and the willingness (or capacity) to be objective, despite how much I want Bitcoin to go up.
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