Why #BTC We believe it will quickly return to the high point of $126,000!

First, let's discuss the reasons: The bond market is "losing its anchoring function," which will become an important support for #BTC to reach new highs.

Let's take a look at the recent macro market situation, which is quite strange:

• Unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%
• Oil prices have plummeted, falling below $60
• Employment has seen negative growth for two consecutive months
• Bankruptcy and default rates are rising

When these events come together, there is only one answer in textbooks: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield should quickly decline! Because the bond market will trade in anticipation of recession + interest rate cuts + deflation.

But what is happening now? The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield refuses to come down, remaining stubbornly high at 4.16%. This is quite strange and abnormal. It indicates that a large amount of capital is selling U.S. Treasuries, pushing down their prices, which in turn keeps the yields high. From the perspective of market dynamics, this is no longer a question of predicting the U.S. economy's performance, but rather "is this country still reliable?"

From past experience, if I were to stand in the shoes of a bond trader, following textbook wisdom: "The economy might be heading for a recession, let's buy government bonds for safety."

However, looking around, I find that I bought government bonds, but their prices still fell, making me a potential victim in what was supposed to be a safe haven. So now many people are pondering the question: "If I buy a 10-year government bond, will the dollars I get back in 10 years still be worth anything?"

This is a fundamental shift in the nature of the problem, from a cyclical hedging issue to a debt repayment capability issue.👇

Recession → Decreased tax revenue

Unemployment → Increased social security expenditures

Real estate → Rising defaults

Corporations → Breakdown of the debt chain

Thus, the fiscal gap is not narrowing but is expanding exponentially. So what options does the government have? Smart money has already made the choice in the bond market.

Option A: Allow debt to clear (true deflation)

• Corporate bankruptcies
• Bank failures
• Real estate liquidation
• Debt restructuring
• Wealth evaporation

This path is theoretically "healthy," but politically it is suicide. From a personal judgment perspective, the bond market does not believe the U.S. will choose this path. 🧐

Option B: Print money to solve (fiscal + monetary integration)

The result of this path is only one:

Debt cannot stop; it can only be diluted by inflation; fiscal deficits will continue to expand, and absolutely no problems can arise before the midterm elections next year. So now the bond market is essentially holding firm. On one hand, smart money is bearish and selling U.S. Treasuries, while on the other hand, the Federal Reserve is starting to buy back Treasuries, offsetting each other to maintain a beautiful bubble. This is why, even when economic data screams "recession," yields refuse to fall.

Finally, when the "risk-free rate" becomes ineffective, money must find another anchor. For the past 40 years, there has been an absolute anchor in the global financial system: U.S. Treasuries = risk-free assets.

But what we see now is: bond prices are falling, real interest rates are unstable, and fiscal credibility is being repeatedly consumed.

So smart capital begins to ask a very fundamental question: "If government bonds are not safe, what is the best allocation?"

Thus, we can see that recently gold and silver, along with a host of other precious metals, have skyrocketed, with gold breaking $4,300/ounce and silver breaking $66/ounce. When one day their trading becomes increasingly crowded and their prices become more and more bubble-like, #BTC will inevitably become the optimal allocation option in the market, and at that time, the significance of digital gold will gradually become apparent. In the past two weeks, we have seen Cathie Wood, Tom Lee, and MicroStrategy all ramping up their purchases to buy the dip, perhaps for this very reason; it might be wise to follow the smart money. 🧐

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