1. Analysis suggests that a rate hike in Japan may not trigger risk aversion

The last rate hike by the Bank of Japan led to a rise in the yen and a sharp increase in market risk aversion, causing the price of Bitcoin to drop from about $65,000 to $50,000. The upcoming rate hike may not trigger risk aversion in the crypto market, as speculators currently hold net long positions in yen, and Japanese government bond yields have continued to rise this year, reaching decades-high levels. The official rate hike reflects that interest rates are catching up with market pace. Additionally, this week the Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points to the lowest level in three years while introducing liquidity measures, indicating that the likelihood of significant unwinding of yen arbitrage trades and year-end risk aversion is low. -Original

2. Trump names Kevin Warsh as top choice for Federal Reserve Chair

U.S. President Trump stated on Friday that Kevin Warsh has risen to the top of his list for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although other candidates are still in the running. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, and Trump believes rates should be lower, noting that Warsh largely agrees with his monetary policy stance. Kalshi data shows that the prediction market has shifted, with Hassett's nomination probability dropping from about 71% to 62%, while Warsh's probability stands at 36%. Trump reiterated that the Federal Reserve Chair should consult the president on interest rate decisions, a move that would disrupt the tradition of the Fed's independence. -Original

3. Gold currently at $90,300, a turning point may be approaching, watch for changes in support levels

Click the link to join the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/iYfqUiyrz5iO BTC plummeted 4,260 points from a high of 94,560, while ETH tested the key support at 3,088! Is it panic selling or a golden opportunity? Tonight's live session will focus on: precise support and resistance + clear bullish and bearish signals + hedging strategies before the Fed's decision, capturing intraday certainty opportunities! 🌍 In-depth analysis of news and fundamentals (core factors affecting today's market) Federal Reserve policy expectations (the biggest variable): The market generally expects a 25BP rate cut, but internal divisions are intensifying, with the options market showing traders continuously buying downside protection rather than betting on an increase. BTC is highly sensitive to policy news, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenarios; Institutional movements are contradictory: Grayscale's BTC Trust increased its holdings by 5,000 coins, but the inflow into spot ETFs was only $56.5 million (the first stabilization in weeks), and the number of active addresses on-chain is close to cyclical lows, indicating that market demand has not truly gained momentum, with current stability more due to exhausted selling pressure rather than buying; Unique bullish support for ETH: Increased activity in the Layer2 ecosystem, with Arbitrum's daily active users exceeding 1.8 million, gas fees remaining low, and combined with expectations of supply tightening, the psychological support at $3,000 is very strong, with replenishment momentum still present; Market sentiment reversal signals: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from "extreme fear" (15 points) in November to a neutral range, but after BTC prices stabilized, the sentiment index declined, with analysts warning about the sustainability of the upward trend, and cautioning against a potential sentiment drop; Regulatory risk warning: The EU's MiCA legislation details have been finalized, with upgraded disclosure requirements for stablecoin reserves, USDT liquidity remains a long-term focus, and in the short term, it is necessary to avoid projects related to small-cap stablecoins. 🎯 Today's precise trading strategy (divided by risk level, suitable for different investors) ✅ Conservative (position ≤30%, avoid policy risk) BTC: 88,700-89,500 USDT, gradually build long positions, stop loss at 87,500 USDT (if it falls below strong support), target 91,400 USDT (reduce 50% at resistance), do not chase highs before the Fed's decision; ETH: 3,000-3,050 USDT, set long positions, stop loss at 2,950 USDT, first target 3,170 USDT, after breaking through look towards 3,380 USDT (take profit at trend resistance); ⚡ Aggressive (position ≤50%, capture short-term fluctuations) BTC short-term: 90,300-91,400 USDT, high sell low buy within the range, chase long if it breaks 91,400 USDT (stop loss at 90,800 USDT), short if it falls below 89,500 USDT (stop loss at 90,000 USDT); ETH short-term: 3,088 USDT, lightly test long, if it stabilizes above 3,170 USDT, immediately increase positions, target 3,380 USDT, stop loss at 3,030 USDT (if it falls below the EMA15 moving average); Disclaimer: The above content represents the author's personal views, aimed at assisting investors in understanding relevant information about the capital market, does not constitute any investment advice, and does not represent AiCoin's stance and views. The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. -Original

4. SEC Chair states that the U.S. government has given Bitcoin an "approval stamp"

The Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated that the U.S. government has given Bitcoin an "approval stamp." -Original

5. MicroStrategy retains its position in the Nasdaq 100 index, continues to accumulate Bitcoin

MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has retained its position in the Nasdaq 100 index. -Original

6. Grayscale states that the Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer apply, expects new highs in 2026

Grayscale released a report indicating that, due to the absence of parabolic bull market overextensions, ETP and DAT reshaping market structure, and a structurally bullish macro backdrop, the Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer apply, and it expects new highs in 2026. -Original

7. Bitmine holds 3.2% of total ETH supply, valued at $12 billion

Bitmine currently holds 3.2% of the current total supply of Ethereum, with these assets valued at approximately $12 billion. -Original

8. This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow reaches $286.6 million

This week, the net inflow into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $286.6 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $214.1 million, Fidelity's FBTC saw a net inflow of $84.5 million, Bitwise's BITB saw a net inflow of $24.6 million, ARK's ARKB saw a net outflow of $11.1 million, Invesco's BTCO saw a net inflow of $6.5 million, Franklin's EZBC saw a net inflow of $8.1 million, VanEck's HODL saw a net outflow of $25.2 million, WisdomTree's BTCW saw a net inflow of $1 million, Grayscale's GBTC saw a net outflow of $38.7 million, and Grayscale's BTC saw a net inflow of $22.8 million. -Original

The above is a selection of hot topics from the past 24 hours. For faster news, please download AiCoin (aicoin.com).

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