President Trump has set an August 1 deadline for progress on trade deals, threatening 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, effectively resetting months of talks. QCP notes the “TACO” narrative persists, with Trump leaving a “narrow window for delay.” Markets currently anticipate rhetoric without action, but implementation would be “materially anti-growth,” QCP researchers explained.

This trade pressure coincides with the late August U.S. debt ceiling deadline. QCP highlights a paradox: fiscal spending, including debt interest, bolsters corporate profits and personal income, making the economy appear robust despite underlying risks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, citing tariff-driven inflation concerns while continuing quantitative tightening.

Within the crypto market, institutional adoption has deepened. QCP notes that Strategy has paused massive BTC buys but raised $4.2 billion for future accumulation, while other firms like Metaplanet plan to use BTC as collateral. The analysts further detailed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is requesting revised filings for spot solana ( SOL) ETFs by the month-end, which suggests potential approval well before the October 10 deadline, fueling onchain speculation.

Currently, crypto volatility hovers near historic lows. Bitcoin ( BTC) remains within 2-3% of all-time highs, buoyed by steady exchange-traded fund (ETF) and corporate treasury inflows. Equities rally and credit spreads tighten as markets price in delayed tariffs, future rate cuts, and sustained fiscal deficits with global liquidity.

The firm concludes that while seasonal trends suggest mid-July stability, the convergence of U.S. policy decisions in Q3 and Q4 could spark significant market volatility, warning the current quiet may be the “calm before the storm.” QCP Capital, established in 2017 and headquartered in Singapore, provides institutional-grade digital asset trading and investment solutions globally.

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