Our biggest confusion is not being lost between persistence and giving up, but rather stubbornly moving forward on a path that does not belong to us. In this way, emotions overwhelm reason, and knowing drowns out the ability to act. We are powerless to recover anything, allowing our spirits to burst forth like fireworks, creating wonderful moments, but the ending is one of sorrow and lament!
The market indeed showed some performance on Sunday night. Just yesterday, I mentioned that above 107,000 we would see a bullish consolidation, while below 107,000 it would turn bearish. I didn't expect it to happen so quickly, and the rise has completed the liquidation of short positions around 109,200, allowing us to prepare to enter short positions above 109,200. The market is still around this level, so we need to consider how to arrange this short position. If any friends also hold short positions, please send me your entry price.
First, it is important to clarify that we are considering our short positions with a short-term mindset. To be honest, when it first surged to around 109,700 and then fell back, I thought our short position should be secure. However, unexpectedly, it rebounded again to around 109,700, adding some uncertainty to the short position. Through the data, we can see that the strength of this rally mainly comes from the futures market, while the spot market is shrinking. According to general market rules, such a situation is prone to a rapid decline.
On another note, I mentioned yesterday that Trump signed new tariff letters with various countries, but the specific content has not been disclosed. The letters will be sent to each country early Tuesday morning, at which point we will know the detailed tariff situation. This is something to pay close attention to, as it is currently the most important issue for the market and will have a certain impact on the short-term market. Moreover, we cannot be sure whether this rise is based on so-called insider information being leaked in advance, so what we can do now is to maintain our short position layout and control our position size, reducing the proportion of our positions based on the average entry price, and view the final outcome based on the news.
Returning to the market, from the liquidity intensity chart, during this rally, the previously balanced long and short liquidity has shifted after liquidating the shorts around 109,200. Currently, short liquidity intensity is gathering near 110,500, while it seems that the longs below are eager to chase the momentum, with a clear increase in long liquidity exceeding the shorts, further gathering around 108,000.
So for the short-term market ahead, if it continues to break upwards and stabilizes above 110,000, it is possible that we will reach a historical high this week. Conversely, if it liquidates downwards and even breaks below 107,000, it would be quite normal to turn bearish in the short term. The market is full of uncertainties, and what we need to do is to adjust our operations reasonably based on actual movements.
On the technical side, as we enter a new week, there are some changes on the weekly chart. The current structure clearly shows a potential top divergence. At least from the current rhythm, it is difficult to negate this top divergence structure with a strong rally, and the actual volume does not allow for such a large increase. The weekly upward trend channel line is currently slowly rising to around 90,000. If there are a few waves of bad news and it breaks below 90,000, it could really damage the existing weekly bullish trend structure, triggering panic selling in the market. However, this timeline is a bit long. If the market continues to break upwards, it will extend the period for the top divergence expectation to materialize, likely several months later.
On the daily chart, the structure is not much different from yesterday. The final closing of the K-line is above the MA7 daily line, so in the short term, it has maintained a rhythm of upward consolidation, and the technical indicators are basically flat. The four-hour chart has entered a bullish cycle, but the volume is showing a contraction, and the technical indicators are also running at a high level, so we need to lower our expectations for short-term upward space.
Overall, we will continue to hold our short positions above 109,200 and watch the evening's U.S. market situation and the final tariff situation. If there is a pullback and it breaks below 107,000, there may be an oversold rebound around 106,200, and we can consider entering long and then look for a position to short after the rebound. If there is positive news and it rises, then after breaking 110,000, we need to consider exiting our short positions and look for opportunities to go long on the right side.
Ethereum is currently moving in sync with Bitcoin in the short term, so we can operate in tandem with Bitcoin.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact me for discussions on the market.】
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