Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Editor: TB, ChainCatcher
After a marathon-style vote filled with pressure, tug-of-war, and threats, the U.S. House of Representatives finally passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act with a narrow margin of 218 votes to 214.
This 869-page bill sparked intense disputes between the two parties and led to a "public break" between Trump and Musk. Musk even threatened to announce the establishment of a "New American Political Party" the day after its passage.
According to the White House's arrangement, Trump will sign the bill at 5 AM Beijing time on the 5th, marking the beginning of this "fiscal experiment."
The Thrilling Legislative Journey of the One Big Beautiful Bill
From its initial proposal to its eventual success, the legislative journey of the One Big Beautiful Bill has been fraught with twists and turns. In mid-May, Republican lawmakers initiated the legislative process using the "budget reconciliation process," intending to bypass the traditional 60-vote threshold in the Senate and advance with a simple majority.
(Note: Budget reconciliation is a special legislative mechanism that allows budget-related bills to pass in the Senate with only 51 votes. Currently, Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats hold 45.)
On May 22, the House passed the bill by a narrow margin of 215 to 214. Before the vote, due to the extremely close numbers between the two parties, Republican Speaker Johnson made several last-minute modifications to satisfy some Republican representatives. However, even so, all Democrats opposed the bill, and there were also divisions within the Republican Party.
On June 4, Musk publicly opposed the bill, calling it "disgusting," and began privately lobbying Republican lawmakers to try to prevent the president from signing it. This further escalated the legislative game and pushed the bill into higher public discourse. (Related reading: Did the stock market crash and Bitcoin plunge due to Musk and Trump’s financial tsunami?)
Once in the Senate, the battle intensified. On June 29, the clerk read the 940-page bill text overnight, taking about 16 hours, creating a rare scene in Washington politics. On July 1, the bill passed the Senate final version with 51 votes, breaking the 50-50 deadlock thanks to a vote from Vice President Vance.
On July 3, the House voted again on the Senate version, passing it with the same narrow margin of 218 to 214. During this period, Democratic leader Jeffries delivered a solo speech lasting 8 hours and 46 minutes to delay the process, setting a record for the longest speech in the House.
Throughout the process, Trump was highly involved, making multiple calls to lawmakers, publicly pressuring them on social media, and specifically criticizing opponents for "making a big mistake."
Who Won, Who Lost? The Interest Map Behind the Bill
The final version of the One Big Beautiful Bill spans 869 pages, with complex content, focusing primarily on large-scale tax cuts and significant reductions in social welfare spending. Multiple polls indicate that the American public generally does not support the bill.
Image source: Jinshi Data
With the bill's passage, clear "winners" and "losers" have emerged.
Winners: The Rich, Corporations, and Traditional Energy
It is clear that high-income groups and large corporations will benefit. The bill not only makes permanent the individual and corporate tax cuts implemented by Trump in 2017 but also further expands tax reduction benefits for capital gains, estate taxes, corporate R&D expenses, and shareholder dividends.
Data disclosed by U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders shows that the bill provides $975 billion in tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans, while the wealthiest 0.2% receive $211 billion in estate tax exemptions, and large corporations benefit from $918 billion in tax cuts.
Additionally, the traditional fossil fuel industry receives "green light" subsidies, while incentives for clean energy such as electric vehicles and solar power are drastically cut—this is also one of the key triggers for Musk's "outrage."
Losers: Low-Income Individuals and the Younger Generation
In stark contrast to the winners, low-income families and marginalized groups face direct impacts. The bill cuts over $1 trillion in government spending, with the hardest-hit areas being Medicaid and food assistance programs. New insurance thresholds, work requirements, and changes in funding mechanisms are expected to result in over 12 million people losing health insurance coverage within ten years.
According to estimates from the CBO, U.S. debt is projected to increase by $3.4 trillion over the next decade due to the bill. This means the government will have to borrow more to fill the fiscal gap, with additional interest expenses expected to reach $600 billion to $700 billion. This heavy interest burden will ultimately be passed on to future generations, squeezing the younger generation's investments and benefits in key areas such as education and housing.
Industry Leaders See Crypto Opportunities
Although the One Big Beautiful Bill does not directly address cryptocurrency issues, industry insiders generally believe its passage is still positive news for the crypto market.
KOL Crypto Big Beautiful points out that the U.S. will significantly increase its fiscal deficit each year, and the scale of U.S. national debt will continue to rise, which is undoubtedly a major boon for Bitcoin. At the same time, the smooth passage of this controversial bill also demonstrates the Trump administration's strong control in Congress, which is favorable for the upcoming passage of crypto policies.
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev is even more optimistic, stating that with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, combined with the traditional market active season in the fourth quarter and a possible interest rate cut environment, Bitcoin and related crypto stocks are likely to hit new historical highs. While the altcoin market will also benefit to some extent, mid-cap coins are expected to perform relatively worse than Bitcoin.
Crypto KOL Phyrex analyzes that although the bill does not directly benefit the crypto industry, it reflects the U.S. internal de-globalization of fiscal expansion and the drastic restructuring of global capital flows, which will indirectly help liquidity for cryptocurrencies, especially as remittance taxes will directly drive up the market value of stablecoins.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has a different view. He believes that if Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" passes, the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) may lead to a tightening of dollar liquidity, causing Bitcoin to fall back to $90,000 to $95,000; if the replenishment goes smoothly, Bitcoin will fluctuate in the $100,000 range, with short-term difficulty breaking the historical high of $112,000. Additionally, he expects the market may remain flat or slightly decline before Fed Chair Powell's speech at the end of August, and after liquidity recovers in early September, Bitcoin may see an increase.
As the One Big Beautiful Bill is implemented, crypto legislation is also entering an accelerated phase. The Republican leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives has announced that the week of July 14 will be "Cryptocurrency Week," during which three important digital currency-related bills will be reviewed. (The "GENIUS Stablecoin Act," the "CLARITY Act," and a proposal to restrict the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency)
The wind has risen, waiting for the echo.
Recommended reading:
U.S. House Passes the CLARITY Act, Is a New Era of Crypto Regulation Coming?
The "GENIUS Act" Resurrected, What Does It Mean for the Crypto Industry?
Did the stock market crash and Bitcoin plunge due to Musk and Trump’s financial tsunami?
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