6.14 Afternoon Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis ~ The market has shown a downward three-wave trend, how should we grasp the short-term?

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孟晓瀚
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1 day ago

In the early hours of the 13th, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, with fighter jets carrying missiles causing chaos among the Iranians. At the same time, both capital and retail investors experienced panic, leading to a wave of sell-offs. This resulted in varying degrees of declines in the cryptocurrency market and global stock markets.

Currently, the market's panic sentiment has eased. From a daily perspective, the current MA5 and 10-day moving averages are exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency price. The BOLL band shows a slight downward trend, while the MACD and KDJ indicators are displaying bearish divergence at the bottom. The TD indicator has reached a downward TD3 K-bar arrangement, indicating that bears are currently dominant. However, there remains a gap between the current cryptocurrency price and the MA5 daily moving average. It is expected that there will be a slight rebound over the weekend to test the high point resistance before facing downward pressure again. The high point resistance is referenced at the 106200-107500 range. If Bitcoin cannot effectively stabilize above any resistance during the weekend rebound, it is advisable to maintain a bearish outlook.

On the 4-hour chart, the current K-bar shows a mixed arrangement of bullish and bearish trends. The MACD is operating below the zero line with decreasing volume, and the KDJ three lines are slightly inclined towards minor oscillation adjustments. The MA5 and 10-day moving averages are beginning to converge, but the BOLL band and MA30-day moving average remain in a state of resistance. Considering the hourly chart, the current market is leaning towards range-bound oscillation adjustments due to low trading volume. The support for the low point is referenced at the 104000-102500 range. Therefore, for Saturday's operations, my personal view is to focus on bearish positions while considering some bullish positions as a supplement.

Operational Strategy: Pullback: Buy at 104500--104000 with a target of 105500-106500 and a stop loss at 103500.

Short positions can be considered at: 106100-106700 with a target of 105000-103500.

Ethereum's overall trend is in sync with Bitcoin, but yesterday's decline was greater than that of Bitcoin. Additionally, the daily trend is lagging behind Bitcoin by one cycle. The short-term market is also leaning towards range-bound oscillation adjustments, with high point resistance referenced at the 2580-2610 range and low point support at 2500-2450. Therefore, for Saturday's operations, my personal view is to focus on bearish positions while considering some bullish positions as a supplement.

Operational Strategy: Pullback: Lightly buy at 2510-2480 with a target of 2550-2580 and a stop loss at 2450.

Short positions can be considered at: 2580-2610 with a target of 2500-2460.

For the short-term trend, this should be sufficient, and I will continue to follow up. My personal views are for reference only. There may be delays in article review and push notifications, and the market changes rapidly. Specific entry and exit points should be guided in real-time. Caution is advised when entering the market. Analysis is not easy, and I welcome everyone to like and follow the public account for surprises!

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