Pump.fun Token Valuation at $4 Billion: Driven by FOMO or True Value?
Author: SuperEx
Recently, the so-called "Meme Engine" Pump.fun on Solana has stirred up the market once again. Rumors about its upcoming Token launch have triggered strong risk-averse sentiment in an already fragile on-chain ecosystem. Some call it a new benchmark in attention economy; others label it as the "number one toxic asset" in the Solana ecosystem.
So, is Pump.fun an untamed dark horse, or the last hurrah of cryptocurrency FOMO culture? The upcoming Token launch may serve as the ultimate litmus test for its true value.
01
What Happened: The Buzz Around Pump.fun Token Launch
Here's the situation: It is reported that Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion through public offerings and Token sales, with a valuation as high as $4 billion. This news has caused a stir in the Solana ecosystem, leading to a surge in risk-averse behavior. Although the official release date has not been confirmed, hints on their social accounts suggest that there may be actions in "two weeks"—which is consistent with their previous statements.
In fact, this is not Pump.fun's first attempt to launch a Token. Back in February, they considered a Dutch auction, but at that time, Trump and his wife launched their own MemeCoin, attracting all the attention and liquidity, forcing Pump.fun to temporarily shelve their plans. Now, although the market has slightly warmed up, it has not yet returned to its peak momentum. So, will this Token issuance be successful? This is not something we can easily judge—it needs to be viewed from the market's perspective.
1-1 Cold Hard Data
As of June 4, Pump.fun's cumulative revenue has exceeded $730 million. Sounds impressive, right? But hold on—since February, its daily revenue has plummeted from nearly $15 million at peak times to just a few million dollars, effectively halving.
1-2 Trading Volume
By the end of 2024, Pump.fun's weekly trading volume hit a record high of $3.3 billion. Nowadays, even reaching a weekly trading volume of $1 billion would be worth celebrating. In short, liquidity and user activity have severely dwindled after the initial "frenzy."
Even more concerning is that the number of Tokens created daily has dropped from 70,000 at peak times to about 30,000. What does this indicate? User interest in this "dice-rolling" game is waning.
1-3 Who is Really Making Money?
Pump.fun seems like a fast track to financial freedom, but the reality is far less optimistic. According to Dune data, in May, there were about 594,000 active wallets:
Only 3.6% of users made over $500 in profit;
Only 0.1% of users made over $10,000;
Only 27 wallets (about 0.0045%) netted over $100,000.
Meanwhile, 52.5% of users lost money, with some even losing over $1 million.
The logic is simple: the vast majority of users are the "exit liquidity" for a few winners—just like in a casino, where everyone thinks they will win, but most end up losing everything.
02
Solana Faces Risk-Averse Exodus
As rumors of the Pump.fun Token intensify, Solana-based MemeCoins have suffered significant blows. Within 24 hours of the announcement, major Solana MemeCoins recorded losses, with Artemis data showing that Solana ranks third among all chains in net capital outflow.
Essentially, the Token plan of Pump.fun is seen as an impending liquidity black hole—the market is responding accordingly.
03
The $4 Billion Valuation Controversy
What is the most controversial issue? The staggering $4 billion valuation. In comparison, Yuga Labs had a similar valuation when launching the APE Token. So, how can Pump.fun justify such a high valuation?
Crypto researcher @Haotian pointedly noted that this valuation is "severely overestimated." He raised four criticisms:
Monetizing attention is a short-term game: Built on FOMO and speculation, lacking long-term fundamental support.
No real moat: A new Solana application could easily replace it.
Over-engineering harms the Meme spirit: Meme culture relies on simplicity—too many features could stifle its appeal.
Valuation incentives harm innovation: When monetizing traffic takes precedence over real technology, cryptocurrency strays from its original intent.
Another KOL @xingpt pointed out that Pump.fun's 30-day annualized revenue is $77.98 million. With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $5 billion, its FDV/revenue ratio is about 64—this is a quite high number. In contrast, DeFi blue-chip projects like Raydium and PancakeSwap have more stable profits but more conservative valuations, highlighting Pump.fun's high risk.
04
But Not Everyone is Bearish
There are also supporters who have spoken out. KOL @CryptoV believes that Pump.fun plays a key role in making Solana the main battleground for on-chain activity. It addresses the full-stack issue from zero liquidity to centralized exchange (CEX) listings—like the iPhone of the chain. He argues that Pump.fun captures two key metrics of the attention economy: liquidity and screen time.
He also noted that with a mere P/E ratio of 5, Pump.fun could actually be a value investment. No airdrops, no internal games—just pure product-driven traction. From this perspective, it is more stable than many hype-driven projects.
05
Conclusion
At first glance, Pump.fun's Token plan may just be another market hype event. But beneath the surface lies a deeper struggle of cryptocurrency ideology: value systems, valuation models, attention economy, and sustainability.
In the short term, the project may still trigger a brief wave of excitement. But in the long run, whether this FOMO-driven business model can establish true defensive capabilities remains to be seen. If it successfully builds a complete Meme ecosystem through this Token issuance, it may indeed deserve the title of "on-chain iPhone." But if this is just the last exit from the hype, it may leave behind nothing but devastation.
The coming weeks are crucial. This is not just a Token issuance—it is a live experiment of the on-chain attention economy mechanism.
Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/06/5890.html
Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SkGRJWP07b_ft7kMObVcrg
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