Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio shared a lengthy post on social media platform X on June 9, stating that the United States is progressing through a dangerous phase he defines as Stage 5 of a historical “Big Cycle”—a period characterized by financial deterioration and extreme internal discord.

Drawing from over 50 years as a global macro investor and research into 500 years of historical transitions, Dalio explained that rising conflict, wealth inequality, and fiscal instability point toward a potential domestic breakdown. He referenced principles outlined in his 2021 book “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order,” noting that recent developments fit the trajectory leading from internal disorder to civil war. The Bridgewater Associates founder wrote:

From studying 50-plus civil wars and revolutions, it became clear that the single most reliable leading indicator of civil war or revolution is bankrupt government finances combined with big wealth gaps.

Dalio described Stage 5 as the point where societal conditions become critically unstable due to a “classic toxic mix” of high public debt, large deficits, and widening gaps in wealth and values. He warned that these imbalances, amplified by economic shocks, often prompt governments to fund spending by printing money, leading to the depreciation of currencies and a loss of investor confidence. Dalio opined: “When the government runs out of buying power, there is a collapse. But on the way to a collapse there is a lot of fighting for money and political power.”

He also highlighted that state governments, unlike the federal government, cannot print money—an asymmetry that exacerbates fiscal pressures in indebted states like Connecticut, Illinois, and New Jersey. According to Dalio, such structural financial stress paired with social fragmentation leads to a fight over how scarce resources are allocated: “The next question becomes who will pay to fix them, the ‘haves’ or the ‘have-nots’? Obviously, it can’t be the have-nots.”

In outlining Stage 6—the civil war stage—Dalio issued a stark caution. He noted that once a country loses its ability to mediate disputes within a shared political framework, open conflict often follows. He opined:

Civil wars are incredibly brutal because they are fights to the death. Everyone is an extremist because everyone is forced to pick a side and fight—also moderates lose out in knife fights.

Though he acknowledged that history sometimes allows for peaceful restructurings, he underscored that outcomes depend heavily on whether leadership can emerge that unites rather than divides. Without such leadership, he warned, the escalation from financial dysfunction to violent confrontation becomes increasingly likely.

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