The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to follow and like, and reject any market smoke screens!
Today, we will not discuss the market, but focus on explaining the psychology of trading. Many friends have approached Lao Cui, and most users hope that Lao Cui can lead everyone to profit, which in the language of the coin circle means to take orders. Here, Lao Cui hopes to clarify that his main job is not as a trading analyst. If you have enough self-discipline, you can say that by reading Lao Cui's articles, you can profit; Lao Cui has a certain advantage in trend control. If you cannot profit from reading Lao Cui's articles, then finding Lao Cui will not be of much help to you. The original intention of Lao Cui in creating this account is more to hope that everyone has a sufficient understanding of the coin circle or the overall financial market, thereby reducing unnecessary losses in investment. Self-media is not Lao Cui's main business, so there is no need for everyone to have too high expectations of Lao Cui. Many trends are basically explained by Lao Cui in advance, and the hundred thousand Bitcoin has led everyone to stop-loss on short positions. If you cannot achieve this, as of now, it has already reached eleven thousand, and finding Lao Cui would not be very meaningful; Lao Cui is also powerless to change the situation. Lao Cui hopes that when you find me, it is mainly for exchanging investment ideas, not coming to repent after losses, which is not very meaningful.
The essence of trading tests one's own cultivation. In trading, one can clearly see their own flaws, so reviewing each trade becomes particularly important. Reviewing is not about making everyone repent; you often think, "If only I had stopped loss at that time," but this mindset does not help you change your thinking for the next trade. You should focus on what the psychological state was when facing that market situation and what caused the mistake at that time. This way, you can change your thinking for the next round of market, rather than foolishly insisting and losing your chips. No one likes to stop loss; stopping loss itself is against human nature, but you must develop this habit. Holding positions, whether in spot or contracts, must have a ratio of return to output. When the value of output does not proportionally match the value of return, you must prepare to stop loss. Here, Lao Cui recommends two readings: if you are a spot user, you can follow Buffett's value investment approach. If you do not recognize the value of Bitcoin, you will definitely not be able to hold on to spot for the long term. For this type of group, it is suitable to read Livermore's investment memoirs; the king of speculation's ideas on controlling waves are not outdated. Livermore is more suitable for contract users to study, while Buffett represents the value of spot. Although these two investment philosophies have similarities, they also have core differences, which can serve as a foundational understanding for those entering the financial investment industry, acting as introductory readings.
The biggest taboo in investment is to face the market with the mentality of being the chosen one. Do not always face market trends with a sense of luck. A few lucky breaks will not bring lifelong returns; instead, they will become stumbling blocks on your investment journey. Even someone as strong as Livermore ultimately could not escape the immense psychological pressure and ended his life with a bullet. The investment journey is always a process from speculation to investment value; speculation is more about accumulating capital to achieve the goal of value investment, which is also the ultimate goal for many users transitioning from contracts to spot. You must be clear that doing contracts is merely to accumulate enough original capital as soon as possible to invest in more valuable industries. Lao Cui's articles are not limited to the coin circle market. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Lao Cui reminded everyone to pay attention to the gold, energy, and military markets, as the returns from these three far exceeded those in the coin circle at that time. From a long-term perspective, although the returns in the coin circle are high enough, in the context of speculation, they are certainly not as good as traditional finance. Speculation requires keen financial judgment and constant attention to the slightest changes in international situations. The depreciation rate of the capitalist market far exceeds the value of labor. If your investment return rate is insufficient, you will become a stepping stone for capital. Always remember that the capitalist market never forgets to exploit you, and you must always be vigilant. Every investment must adhere to your inner trading rules and continuously improve; not every loss cannot find its reason. Losing in the trading market is not scary; what is scary is losing and being unable to find the reason, and after finding the reason, being unable to correct it.
Many friends cannot adapt to the current pace. We have transitioned from an agricultural country to an industrial country, leaving behind a lot of agricultural thinking, which leads many investment users to have a smallholder mentality, always thinking that the rule of "you reap what you sow" can be applied to the current investment market. Lao Cui can clearly tell everyone that this way of thinking is wrong. In the investment market, most of the time is spent in losses; no one will receive returns just by investing, unless it is a domestic pyramid scheme. When investing, you must think that this trade may incur losses or even result in total loss; you must first learn to accept a long period of losses before you can expect returns. Investing with a clear understanding of value is more effective. The current market situation is suitable for everyone to adopt a long-term perspective. It is well known that the interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will drive Bitcoin to a new level, but you insist on focusing on short-term gains. How can you achieve great things? Clearly, you can profit while controlling risks, but you insist on enlarging your position to gain more benefits, not realizing that by enlarging your position, you are also increasing your risks. If you can buy one Bitcoin, do not buy Ethereum; if you can buy one Ethereum or SOL, do not think about buying lower market cap coins. The 80/20 rule always means that someone loses for you to gain; the trading rules are unfair to the public, and we must learn to adapt to this unfairness.
Lao Cui summarizes: The shift in thinking from Livermore to Buffett is a long-term and necessary process of improvement. In the context of the coin circle, your problems are very prominent: contracts cannot adapt to Livermore's rules, and when losses occur, you cannot stop loss in time; long-term investments cannot adapt to Buffett's value philosophy, and you want to exit at the slightest loss or cannot hold on for the long term when profits reach a certain level. Both of these are issues that prevent you from profiting and even lead to losses. If you do not learn to accept losses, no one can help you profit; it is not very meaningful to follow anyone; what is important is to enhance your own understanding. If you can accept the value theory of the coin circle, then hold onto spot, and the holding time for spot at this stage can yield results in about six months. If you cannot recognize the value of the coin circle, you can engage in short-term speculation, but you must learn to know when to stop. Neither you nor I have Livermore's understanding; even if we share the same understanding, the final outcome may not be perfect. Again, I emphasize that the endpoint of contracts is spot; do not rely on contracts for a living. The accumulation of original capital is the starting point of your investment journey. At the end of the article, Bitcoin's trend is expected to reach a new peak in the second half of the year. Whether 150,000 is the endpoint, Lao Cui cannot estimate, but how to choose is up to you (the estimate for Ethereum is merely below the previous high, 4000-4500, and you should prepare to clear positions from 3500-4000). If you have any questions about investment, you can also communicate with Lao Cui, not limited to the coin circle market. Lao Cui also has assets in US stocks, gold, and the coin circle, as Lao Cui is also an analyst who transitioned from the securities market to the coin circle. Everyone is welcome to communicate different viewpoints with Lao Cui, learn from each other, and make progress together! Self-awareness surpasses all trading rules!
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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