Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.23 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.51%, valued at $2.05 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $242.7 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.04%, of which USDT accounts for 61.96%.

This week, BTC's price has shown a volatile upward trend, currently priced at $103,158; ETH has also shown a volatile upward trend, currently priced at $2,335.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: PNUT with a 7-day increase of 93.83%, MOG with a 7-day increase of 71.4%, PEPE with a 7-day increase of 45.43%, and WIF with a 7-day increase of 32.29%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $919.3 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $38.2 million.

On May 10, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 70 (higher than last week), with the sentiment this week being: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, with significant inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and minor net outflows from Ethereum ETFs. Due to Trump's declaration of easing tariffs, even though the Federal Reserve firmly believes it is not the right time to cut interest rates, BTC surged from $97,000 to break through $104,000. However, on-chain data shows that after breaking the $100,000 mark, profit-taking addresses began to realize gains. If BTC wants to break through its previous high, it still requires the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy and a large influx of funds. Notably, altcoins with good fundamentals have seen significant increases this week.

The market remains in a greedy sentiment. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 17.1%, lower than last week, making a June rate cut unlikely, with attention turning to whether there will be a cut in July. With most countries globally adopting quantitative easing policies, several U.S. states passing Bitcoin strategic reserve bills, and some publicly listed companies actively "competing for Bitcoin," the outlook for 2025 remains optimistic. However, summer may see liquidity shortages, so partial profit-taking is recommended.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On May 6, CNBC reported that Trump arranged two cryptocurrency-themed dinners this month—one for wealthy political donors and another for "Meme coin" millionaires;

2. On May 6, according to Nansen data, the top five public chains by active addresses over the past 7 days were: Solana (24.215 million), Tron (5.851 million), Base (5.42 million), BNB Chain (5.243 million), and Aptos (4.889 million);

3. On May 8, payment service provider Stripe announced the launch of stablecoin financial accounts, allowing users to send and receive funds through fiat and cryptocurrency channels, now covering 101 countries/regions;

4. On May 7, Vaulta (formerly EOS) announced that EOS tokens will be swapped for $A on May 14, supporting a 1:1 frictionless exchange with no changes to token economics;

5. On May 7, market data showed that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has continued to rise since March 26, currently reported at 65.4%, setting a new high in this bull market;

6. On May 7, Coindesk reported that Visa's (V) venture capital arm made a strategic investment in the startup BVNK, which is building a payment infrastructure based on stablecoins, reflecting the trend of traditional financial companies entering blockchain-driven currency flows;

7. On May 7, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional investment of $53.4 million to acquire 555 BTC;

8. On May 9, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini received regulatory approval to expand cryptocurrency derivatives trading in Europe. Gemini has obtained a MiFID II license from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), allowing the exchange to offer cryptocurrency derivatives in the EU. The derivatives to be launched in the EU and European Economic Area will include perpetual futures and other derivatives, which advanced users of Gemini can utilize;

9. On May 9, according to a statement released on Thursday, Bitcoin miners MARA and CleanSpark both saw revenue growth in the first quarter of this year, increasing by 30% and 63%, respectively.

Macroeconomics

1. On May 3, Buffett stated that investments in Japan fully align with their investment philosophy and that they will not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade;

2. On May 7, U.S. President Trump stated, "We may renegotiate the USMCA. We will maintain a friendly relationship with Canada. I respect Canadians";

3. On May 7, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced at a press conference that the reserve requirement ratio would be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market, and that the policy interest rate would be reduced by 0.1 percentage points;

4. On May 8, U.S. President Trump stated: "I believe the 10% tariff baseline has been set. The 10% benchmark rate for the UK is not a template for other countries; 10% is a very low number, and other countries may be higher";

5. On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in response to a question that President Trump's request for a rate cut would not affect the Federal Reserve's work;

6. On May 8, the Federal Reserve maintained the May benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, keeping rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting;

7. On May 9, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is 17.1%, while the probability of maintaining rates is 82.9%.

ETF

According to statistics, from May 5 to May 9, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $919.3 million; as of May 9, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.872 billion, currently holding $19.542 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.108 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $123.258 billion.

The net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $38.2 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. Canada Crypto Week will be held from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;

2. ETHWomen will be held on May 13, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;

3. ULTILAND will host an offline event themed "A Star Is Born - AI x ARTFi x RWA" on Thursday, May 15, at 3:00 PM in Hong Kong's Central Trading Plaza 3;

4. Bitcoin 2025 will take place from May 27 to 29, 2025, in Las Vegas, USA;

5. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;

6. Permissionless IV will take place from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA.

Project Progress

1. VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF called "NODE" on May 14. This ETF will invest in 30 to 60 stocks related to the digital asset economy, including investments in cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin mining companies, and data centers;

2. NEAR's proposal for a chain-abstract relayer is open for applications until May 15. This RFP aims to build a chain-abstract relayer infrastructure, allowing developers to seamlessly sponsor gas fees or let users pay transaction fees across multiple blockchains, accepting base tokens (like ETH, SOL) and mainstream stablecoins (USDT/USDC) as gas deposits;

3. The distributed validation infrastructure Obol will have its TGE on May 15.

Important Events

1. Galaxy plans to go public on Nasdaq on May 16.

Token Unlocking

1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 152 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $27.69 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply;

2. Cyber (CYBER) will unlock 4.23 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $6.2 million, accounting for 4.23% of the circulating supply;

3. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $56.01 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;

4. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $16.2 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;

5. Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 46.39 million tokens on May 15, valued at approximately $58.54 million, accounting for 4.64% of the circulating supply;

6. Apecoin (APE) will unlock 13.34 million tokens on May 17, valued at approximately $9.9 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have built a "trend judgment + value excavation + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly live strategy sessions of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news briefings of "Blockchain Today," we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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