The disinflation story is under pressure.

Our markets team has been flagging this for three months, and this week's CPI print is the confirmation. That's a meaningful shift from the pre-war outlook and removes one of the reasons 2026 looked more resilient than 2022.

The oil shock from the Iran conflict is showing up in headline CPI. Core leading indicators are moving in the same direction. Prices paid remain elevated across manufacturing and services, and import prices ex-petroleum are picking up.

Wages are what's giving the Fed cover. Wages aren't yet accelerating enough to force the Fed's hand, but last Friday's reaction to a strong jobs print is a preview of how quickly that changes if labor data runs hot.

Against that backdrop, Warsh's first FOMC meeting lands next week. The market has a habit of testing incoming Fed Chairs (Greenspan in 1987, Bernanke in 2006). Consensus expects him to anchor on Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE since it remains subdued.

But as a reminder, headline CPI leads it by six months.

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