Everyone's watching the SpaceX IPO.

The bigger story is the multi-trillion-dollar economy it's unlocking.

The price of leaving Earth is about to undergo its most aggressive compression in history. Launch costs barely moved for sixty years, then SpaceX arrived and drove them down by an order of magnitude.

This report from @pierskicks anticipates another 60x drop by 2045.

Every drop in price makes previously impossible businesses viable. Each threshold unlocks an entire industry:

• $1,500/kg gave us megaconstellations and Earth observation.

• $500/kg opens orbital compute and commercial stations.

• $200/kg opens microgravity manufacturing.

• $50/kg unlocks a lunar economy.

• $10/kg underpins the Mars supply chain.

Starlink already carries capacity equivalent to as much as 20% of the world's real-time internet traffic. Orbital data centres sounded like science fiction in 2019 and are now funded in response to terrestrial power constraints. Anthropic and Google have signed deals paying SpaceX ~$26B a year for access to Colossus here on the ground.

The most interesting founders in the sector are already building for launch costs that don't exist yet.

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