Written by: Blockchain Knight

Recently, the U.S. stock market has been constantly setting new peak points, while Bitcoin has only shown a moderate rise. This divergence is not accidental, but rather the result of a combination of multiple macro and market structural factors.

From the perspective of macro liquidity, the rise in the U.S. stock market is more driven by the enhanced expectations for a soft landing of the economy, as well as the market’s optimistic pricing regarding the future interest rate cut path of the new Federal Reserve chairman.

Especially with the AI industry continuing to thrive, capital has concentrated towards tech giants, leading to impressive index performance.

However, Bitcoin is more sensitive to liquidity, and its rise often relies on genuine easing, such as large-scale monetary injections or rapid interest rate declines. Currently, it remains in a phase of expected easing, with funds favoring stocks that have higher certainty.

Additionally, there are still significant differences in the funding structure between the two markets. The rise of the U.S. stock market is mainly driven by institutional funding, particularly through passive index funds and large asset management companies continuously increasing their positions.

Although Bitcoin has seen sustained capital inflows through ETFs recently, its overall size is still insufficient to compete with the U.S. stock market.

At the same time, some early profits have been realized at higher prices, which has weakened the upward momentum of BTC, creating the appearance of stagnation.

The current market risk appetite is not one of complete expansion but rather structural risk preference. Funds are more willing to bet on technology companies with clear profit logic than purely narrative-driven crypto assets.

Although Bitcoin is considered digital gold, its safe-haven attributes are actually weakened in the phase of improving economic expectations, leading to decreased attractiveness.

Moreover, the regulatory environment and market sentiment are also influencing the pace. There remains uncertainty surrounding the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S. (especially with recent clear legislative proposals repeatedly facing obstacles), which limits further entry of some institutional funds. In contrast, the institutional environment for U.S. stocks is more mature and transparent, allowing for smoother capital allocation.

However, in the near future, Bitcoin still has the potential for a catch-up rally. If Kevin Walsh can enter a rate-cutting cycle following his succession, truly releasing liquidity, Bitcoin may experience a period of rise, making up for its current lag, and possibly outpacing the U.S. stock market.

Of course, if AI-driven profit growth continues to exceed expectations while macro liquidity does not significantly ease, funds may continue to concentrate on core assets of the U.S. stock market, leaving Bitcoin in a fluctuating state but lacking a trend-breaking probability.

There is also a dismal possibility that if economic data weakens or policy expectations reverse, leading to a correction in the U.S. stock market at high points, Bitcoin may also struggle to remain unscathed, and due to its higher volatility, the adjustment will inevitably be greater.

Thus, it is not that Bitcoin's fundamentals are weakening, but rather a result of a transitional shift in fund preference.

From a medium to long-term perspective, Bitcoin is still in the process of institutionalization, and its correlation with traditional financial markets will gradually strengthen. However, in the short term, the strong pattern of the U.S. stock market is likely to continue until a true liquidity turning point appears.

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