Written by: Liu Jiaolian

Waking up from sleep, BTC temporarily retreated to 77k after standing at 79k.

On April 22, 2026, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holdings reached 806,700 Bitcoins, worth approximately $6.37 billion, setting a new historical high for the fund [1]. This data appeared after nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, during which IBIT accumulated approximately 21,500 BTC.

Upon hearing the news, the market erupted in cheers. Many believe this is a clear signal of an institutional bull market.

However, Jiaolian took a closer look at the data and found that things are not so simple. On the same day IBIT celebrated its new high, it was no longer the largest institutional holder.

1. A Silent Coin Accumulation Race

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reclaimed the title of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with a holding of 815,061 BTC, leading IBIT by about 8,300 BTC [2].

The gap is not wide, but it is significant.

Looking at the increments is even more revealing. Since 2026, Strategy has net increased approximately 108,000 BTC, while IBIT has only increased by about 16,800 BTC. The amount of Strategy’s accumulation is equivalent to more than 2.3 times the newly supplied Bitcoin during the same period.

This is not a question of right or wrong. Two paths, two logics, represent the essential differences in how institutional funds enter the market.

IBIT is passive. Its holdings grow entirely dependent on investor subscriptions. When someone buys IBIT shares, authorized participants then purchase Bitcoin in the spot market. The funds arrive and the buying behavior are almost simultaneous. Therefore, the changes in IBIT's holdings are a real-time thermometer of institutional demand.

Strategy is active. It actively raises funds through issuing convertible bonds, preferred stocks, and ATM equity issuances, then directly uses the money to buy Bitcoin. Once purchased, it does not sell, creating a de facto locking effect.

One reflects demand, the other creates demand. This is the fundamental difference.

2. 10% of Circulating Supply Has Been Locked

Adding the two together, along with other spot ETFs, the institutional system has controlled over 2 million Bitcoins, accounting for more than 10% of Bitcoin's circulating supply.

This is a number that needs to be taken seriously.

10% may not sound like a lot, but considering the liquidity depth of the Bitcoin market, this proportion is sufficient to influence the price formation mechanism. Jiaolian has previously mentioned that Bitcoin's liquidity is mainly concentrated in exchanges and ETF products. As the locked shares by institutions increase, the Bitcoin available for free trading in the market will decrease.

The market performance in mid-April provided an observation window. Bitcoin encountered resistance several times around $76,000, but each time the pullback's bottom gradually rose—from around $60,000 in March to around $70,000 in early April. This price pattern of rising bottoms is highly correlated with continuous institutional buying.

From April 13 to 17, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $996 million, the highest weekly level since January 2026, while Bitcoin prices rose from $73,000 to the $76,000 range during the same period [3]. On April 20 alone, IBIT saw an inflow of $256 million, and Bitcoin prices rose 3.77% that day.

This is not a coincidence. This is the supply-demand relationship at work.

3. Two Paths, Two Vulnerabilities

However, Jiaolian believes that any structure has vulnerabilities. IBIT and Strategy each have their own risks.

The risk of IBIT lies in the bidirectionality of funds. ETF funds can flow in quickly and can also flow out quickly in times of a worsening macro environment. During the market downturn at the beginning of 2026, IBIT recorded weekly outflows. If one day market sentiment reverses, the outflow of ETF funds can directly pressure Bitcoin prices. This is the natural characteristic of passive products—the thresholds for subscriptions and redemptions are equally low.

The risk of Strategy lies in rising financing costs. The annualized rate of STRC preferred shares has reached 11.5%, and the company has shifted from low-interest convertible bonds to high-cost financing tools [4]. Its financing flywheel depends on the price-to-book ratio premium; when the premium goes above 1x, the company can issue shares at prices higher than Bitcoin asset values and then use the raised funds to buy more Bitcoin. However, this premium has compressed from 3.4x in 2024 to about 1.2x in March 2026. The efficiency of the flywheel is declining.

If Bitcoin prices remain depressed or the market loses confidence in its premium model, Strategy’s financing capabilities will be affected. Whether it can continue to maintain an aggressive accumulation pace is a question mark.

4. Support and Conditions for an Institutional Bull Market

Jiaolian does not aim to deny the trend of institutionalization. On the contrary, Jiaolian believes that the institutional transformation of the Bitcoin market is real and irreversible.

BlackRock has submitted the S-1 document to the SEC, planning to launch a Bitcoin income ETF (code BITA), generating income through a covered call strategy on IBIT. This indicates that asset management giants are extending from single holdings to actively managed products [1].

It's not just Bitcoin. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded consecutive net inflows, with an inflow of $67.8 million on April 20 alone. Institutional allocation to crypto assets is diversifying.

The macro backdrop is also changing. The Iran conflict has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices high, with WTI around $93 per barrel. Some funds are reassessing Bitcoin as a pricing foundation for digital hard currency.

But will all these conditions together be enough to support a genuine institutional bull market?

Jiaolian feels that institutionalization is a trend, but a bull market requires the resonance of more conditions. Whether the sustained inflow of ETF funds can be maintained, whether Strategy’s financing flywheel can continue to operate, and whether Bitcoin prices can effectively break through key resistance levels under the push of institutional buying—these three variables' resonance direction will determine whether the institutional bull market is a story that is happening or a script still awaiting.

References:

[1] Lockridge Okoth, "BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Holdings Hit Record 806,700 BTC Worth $63.7 Billion", *BeInCrypto*, Apr 22, 2026. [Link](https://beincrypto.com/blackrock-ibit-bitcoin-holdings-record-high/)

[2] River, tweet data, Apr 20, 2026. [Link](https://twitter.com/River/status/2046270705965117623)

[3] Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETF flow data, Apr 2026. [Link](https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow/)

[4] MicroStrategy, Q1 2026 financial report and SEC filing, Apr 2026.

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