Author: Zhu Weisha
Fiat currency has entered its middle age. As Bitcoin prices pull back, old accounts from the Satoshi Nakamoto era begin to sell, and the market is searching for reasons—some believe that with the intervention of American power, Bitcoin has deviated from its original intention of replacing fiat currency. These viewpoints may have merit in the first half; however, in the second half, without the cooperation of the U.S. government and financial leaders, and without the self-revolution of these political and financial elites, Bitcoin may not even surpass gold. The strategic intuition of American leaders may hint at the future direction, but their sole emphasis on stablecoins will not be sufficient to save the dollar, let alone to ensure America's continued leadership position.
By 2026, we are in a cycle of correction from last year's peak, compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty, and Bitcoin has arrived at a critical turning point. This article synthesizes the analysis of natural growth curves, historical lessons from fiat currency collapses, and the risks of Bitcoin's "second half" to explore its strategic path forward. It focuses on three core issues in Satoshi Nakamoto's design, depicts a timeline for the collapse of the dollar, and proposes a two-step strategy towards a Bitcoin standard, ultimately pointing to a decentralized, inflation-free global currency system.
1. The Genius of Satoshi Nakamoto and Three Major Misunderstandings
Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin as a decentralized currency with a fixed supply of 21 million coins and a proof-of-work mechanism, aimed at eliminating intermediaries and inflation. This system has withstood over a decade of scrutiny and has shown remarkable resilience. However, as I pointed out in "Solving Bitcoin's Three Notable Risks Requires Satoshi Nakamoto's Return," there are three "misunderstandings" in Nakamoto's design:
Misunderstanding of the monetary metric. Bitcoin was designed to be a store of value and a medium of exchange but lacks a stable pricing mechanism. This has led to the rise of stablecoins, making them the unit of account for daily transactions. In the future, Bitcoin needs to integrate decentralized stablecoins (such as DW20) to first achieve a Bitcoin-dollar mixed standard and then transition to a pure Bitcoin standard.
Underestimation of hardware dynamics. Nakamoto envisioned a scenario where everyone participates in mining through CPUs but did not foresee the dominance of specialized ASIC mining machines, resulting in the centralization of computing power among large players, bringing about monopoly risks. This needs to be addressed through community governance reforms to balance mining incentives and prevent excessive concentration.
Misunderstanding of the timeline for the dollar's collapse. Nakamoto designed a halving cycle of 132 years (until 2140), assuming a gradual decline of fiat currencies. However, real-world analysis suggests that the collapse of the dollar could accelerate. Since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1973, the dollar's lifespan is roughly a century—this is a confirmation of historical patterns. As I analyzed in "Predicting When the Dollar Will Collapse from the Natural Growth Curve," Bitcoin's effective dominance period could be completed in only 48 years, coinciding with the rapid phase of the natural growth curve.
These "misunderstandings" are not fatal flaws but rather highlight Bitcoin's adaptability. In the second half (post-ETF approval), the focus will shift from issuance to application, governance, and global integration.
2. Natural Growth Curve: Compressed from 132 Years to 48 Years of Dominance
The price and adoption of Bitcoin follow the Pearl-Reed natural growth curve, exhibiting an S-shape: accumulation phase (slow build-up), high growth phase (exponential explosion), and maturity phase (stable synchrony with the economy). Nakamoto's 132 years corresponds to about 33 four-year halving cycles, while 48 years corresponds to 12 cycles: the first three cycles being accumulation, the 4th to 9th cycles being high growth, and the 10th to 12th cycles being maturity, subsequently synchronizing with a global economic growth of about 2% per year.
Real-world data compresses this timeline: the first 48 years for mining and consensus establishment, and the 13th to 33rd cycles establishing Bitcoin as an equivalent of M1. Key inflection points on the curve: the 4th cycle enters high growth, and the 10th cycle enters maturity. Bitcoin's market value catches up with global M1, reaching about $140 trillion by the 12th cycle, and then synchronizing with M1 until about 2140 at approximately $754 trillion, with a single coin priced at about $35.9 million (as detailed in my "Bitcoin Natural Growth Curve").
This acceleration is driven by institutional adoption (such as BlackRock ETF) and Metcalfe's Law (network value ∝ users²). Short-term fluctuations are unpredictable, but long-term trends are upward, with the narrative shifting from "store of value" to "global standard." Currently, we are in the fifth cycle, with a peak target of $200,000 being reasonable (with around a 2-year window remaining), as chips shift from weak hands to strong hands—long-term holders and institutions.
3. Historical Lessons: The Inevitable Collapse of the Dollar and Paper Currency
China began issuing paper currency during the Song Dynasty: the Northern Song's Jiaozi (1024-1105) lasted 81 years before collapsing due to over-issuance; the Southern Song's Huizi (1161-1724) and Ming's Baochao (1375-1444) both lasted less than a hundred years; the Yuan's Zhongtong coin (1260-1368) lasted the longest at 108 years. The root of the collapse: government monopoly on issuance, printing money for fiscal deficits, with no checks and balances.
The dollar, as the "best" fiat currency, follows a trajectory corresponding to historical failures, providing an opportunity for Bitcoin’s rise. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, the dollar has devalued by 98% against gold. As I calculated in "The Past 50 Years: The Dollar's Annual Compound Inflation Rate Against Gold Exceeds 8.1%, Which Is the Main Reason for Wealth Polarization": the dollar's annual compound inflation rate has exceeded 8.1% over the past 50 years, making it impossible for savings to retain value, where annual returns must exceed 8.1% to outpace inflation—achieved by only a few, leading to wealth polarization: hard work barely sustains livelihood, while speculation becomes mainstream.
History repeats itself: the dollar follows out of the S-curve. From 1973-2000 is the accumulation phase (27 years), 2000-2054 is the high inflation phase (54 years), followed by another 27 years of stabilization, totaling 108 years, leading to a collapse around 2081.
Bitcoin as a remedy: fixed supply counters the temptation of money printing, similar to the ancient shift to gold and silver during currency crises. Bitcoin's 48-year dominance period is accelerating, positioning it as a "financial lifeboat."
4. The Second Half: Three Major Risks and the Necessity of Satoshi's Return
The second half of Bitcoin is triggered by ETF approval in 2024, shifting from issuance to application. However, three major risks become evident:
Mining centralization risk. Large capital distorts the computing power curve; a monopoly by large capital during low-profit periods may lead to value depreciation.
Risk of reduced maintenance personnel. The number of Bitcoin Core maintainers has decreased from 17 to 4, and it may further drop to 1, forming a "programmer monopoly."
Risk of users holding coins without rights. In the second half, users are the main holders but lack governance rights, which does not align with the shareholder rights in traditional finance.
Solutions require Satoshi's emergence. As I suggested in "Solving Bitcoin's Three Significant Risks Requires Satoshi Nakamoto's Return": no one holds his position to unite the community. It's suggested to establish a foundation with a 9-member decision-making committee (2 votes for programmers, 2 votes for computing power stakeholders, 4 votes for users, 1 vote for Satoshi), and set up a small office. Collect some transaction fees (e.g., Ethereum model) to maintain operations and grant users participatory rights. Satoshi serves as the first chairman to ensure a counter to entropy increase. If he is willing to return, the Trump administration could invite him to serve as an advisor on AI and crypto to promote governance upgrades. This certainly faces many obstacles, but if you have a better proposal, feel free to present it for discussion.
5. Two-Step Path for Bitcoin Toward a Standard
Bitcoin-dollar mixed standard. The U.S. should first establish strategic reserves (ideally, official and private holdings of 40% BTC, matching the dollar's trade share) to counter the global central bank gold-buying alliance. Trump's "Crypto Tsar" needs to transcend the narrow mindset suitable only for the first half and regard BTC as a strategic high ground in the currency war.
Pure Bitcoin standard. Establish a decentralized stablecoin benchmark, combine it with Bitcoin as a reserve currency to achieve synchronized pricing, growth, and GDP (without inflation). By 2054-2070, Bitcoin gradually replaces fiat currencies, creating a fairer social system.
The current cycle's $200,000 target is achievable, and long-term could reach several million to tens of millions of dollars per coin. Based on the natural growth curve, it’s forecasted to be about $35.9 million per coin. Of course, threats from quantum computing and other external factors need continual community attention and technological upgrades. Community mechanisms ensuring the smooth operation of the second half are crucial.
Conclusion: A Fairer World Awaits Ahead
The future of Bitcoin is not destined to collapse; it can navigate wisely towards victory. From Satoshi Nakamoto's 132-year blueprint to a compressed rise in 48 years, it stands against the demise of the dollar, addressing the historical failures of fiat currencies. The second half requires governance evolution, even Satoshi's guidance, to mitigate risks and realize a bubble-free, user-empowering system. Through national endorsement and stability integration, Bitcoin can fulfill its original intention: gradually replacing fiat currencies and evolving into a global currency anchor. Long-term holders can withstand corrections, as what lies ahead is not just wealth, but also a moral, inflation-free economic vision.
During Bitcoin's decline phase, it will spur reform: building consensus, promoting reserves, and improving governance—allowing Bitcoin to lead this silent yet profound financial revolution.
This article is an excerpt from the following articles, responding to the current Bitcoin decline:
“Predicting When the Dollar Will Collapse from the Natural Growth Curve”
“Bitcoin Natural Growth Curve” (Zhu Weisha, February 25, 2026)
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