The oscillation is not over! Over 64,700 is the dividing line for shorts,key market forecast simulation

During this time, our analytical ideas and views have generally aligned with the market trends.

Let's review: After the previous bottom formed a V-rebound, I clearly stated that this kind of V-rebound would not directly reverse all cycles, so it is highly likely that there will be another downward retest. At the same time, the probability of breaking the previous low on this second exploration is small; it is more likely that after not breaking the previous low, the market will move into a period of oscillation upward.

Therefore, on the 10th, we emphasized that after confirming the pressure at this position, we need to look for a new short-term downward segment, pointing out that the market might enter an adjustment period. So far, the market is indeed still in an adjustment phase, which is consistent with our judgment at that time.

Subsequently, on the 13th, we provided the support range below. In just three days, the price fell back into this support area from the upper pressure level. How was this support judged? The key is to look at the pullback range of the previous upward phase—50% to 0.618 range.

Among them:

50% is considered a medium-axis pullback, usually seen as a healthy pullback.

0.618 is the golden ratio.

Therefore, this area is regarded as a key support range. Generally, this area will provide some support; if it effectively breaks down, there is a high probability that the downward trend will continue and new lows will be created.

The actual trend is: the price received some support within this oscillating range; our expectation at that time was also to see a rebound first and pay attention to whether it breaks the previous high. However, the market did not break the previous high, but formed a lower second high, and then fell back again.

At that time, I also pointed out: If the key support below is retested and stabilized, the market may move into a "two-phase upward" (upward→pullback→re-upward→break previous high→re-fall). But the reality is that this key support was eventually broken, so we see the subsequent standard bearish arrangement—swing highs and lows continuously moving down.

Therefore, since the support was broken, we have maintained a short-term bearish outlook, continuing to seek a move towards previous lows, and this judgement continued until yesterday.

Current Structure Judgment

Yesterday, my core viewpoint was: Bitcoin's oscillation has not yet ended.

Subsequent movements are likely to repeatedly oscillate within the “previous high—previous low” broad range, with possible patterns being:

Divergent oscillation

Convergent oscillation

Or repeated tugging within the range

The overall conclusion is just one: the oscillation is not over.

Two Main Path Expectations

Path One (I think it's more reasonable):

First oscillate upward

Break previous high (liquidate shorts)

Then shift to a new downward phase

Path Two:

First break the previous low

But there won’t be a direct one-sided downward movement

It is likely to first rebound a bit

Then continue the bearish trend

Even if the previous low breaks, it is not recommended to directly chase shorts, because in an oscillating structure, it often bounces back first after breaking.

Two Bearish Layout Ideas

1  After the high is broken, build up short positions in batches
2 After the low is broken, wait for the rebound to go short

Among these, the second option will most likely only form a "second high" rather than breaking the previous high again.

Current Key Positions on the Chart

My core viewpoint continues to remain unchanged.

I still focus on the 0.5—0.618 range of this entire pullback, which is still the most visible effective support zone.

Key price reference:

Around 0.618: approximately 64,700

As long as the price does not effectively break below 64,700, there remains hope to stabilize in this area and create a rebound. After breaking the previous high, it can then begin a new downward trend. This movement would actually be more conducive to the continuation of the bearish trend in the future.

Additionally, it should be noted:

This round of V-rebound has a larger space

Usually indicates that the oscillation cycle will not be too short

Reference for the previous round of oscillation lasted about one and a half months

Therefore, I still lean towards:

The probability of a direct one-sided trend continuing is low

Repetitive oscillation is the main tone

The rhythm is highly likely to be:

Oscillate downward → rebound upward → oscillate downward again → rebound again

Short-term Long Position Strategy

The current price has entered the key support area below, and we can consider:

Plan A (aggressive):

Play a short long position in the support zone

Defense position: 64,700

Target: Look for a breakthrough above the previous high

This is a short-long opportunity within a purely oscillating structure.

Two More Robust Entry Plans

✅ Plan One: Trendline Breakout Long

Currently, it is in a standard downward channel, and the high around 67,300 is testing the downward trendline (the 4th test).

If there is:

An effective upward breakout of the trendline

Then consider entering a long position:

Defense position: previous low

✅ Plan Two: Long Again in the Retracement Support Zone

If pressured near the trendline, the price falls back:

Wait for the price to re-test the support zone

Distribute in batches within the range

Defense position: 64,700

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