With the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the recovery of macro liquidity, a structural bull market may be initiated, which will continue to accelerate alongside innovation and capital collaboration.

Summary

In November 2025, the cryptocurrency market is at a structural turning point: after the fiscal retreat and peak interest rates, liquidity is flowing back to the private sector, and the differentiation of risk assets is intensifying. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has seen a balance swell from about $800 billion to over $1 trillion due to the U.S. government shutdown, effectively withdrawing about $200 billion in liquidity from the market, exacerbating the funding strain in the banking system. BTC serves as a stable collateral layer, while ETH acts as a settlement hub; incremental funds are flowing towards L2, AI/Robotics/DePIN/x402, InfoFi, DAT, Presales, and Memecoin along the "narrative × technology × distribution" path. The total market capitalization has retreated, and the fear index has declined, corresponding to a mid-term turnover and value layout area. The main risks lie in regulatory uncertainty, on-chain complexity and multi-chain fragmentation, information asymmetry, and emotional entanglement. The next 12 months will be characterized by a "structural bull" rather than a full bull market, with the key factors being mechanism design, distribution efficiency, and attention operation; capturing early distribution and executing closed loops should prioritize disciplined allocation around long-term themes like AI×Crypto and DAT.

I. Macroeconomic Overview

In November 2025, the global cryptocurrency market is at a structural turning point: it is neither the full onset of a new bull market nor a passive defense against a downward abyss, but rather a critical window of "de-virtualization towards reality, returning from narrative to technology, and shifting from pure speculation to structural participation." The root cause driving this turning point lies not in a single price or policy, but in the overall shift of the macro paradigm. Over the past two years, total demand management dominated by fiscal spending expansion in the post-pandemic era has gradually retreated, the neutral tightening cycle of monetary policy has significantly peaked, and the government's direct traction on liquidity has weakened, allowing the private sector to regain the dominant power of capital allocation. The reassessment of new technology narratives and production functions has begun to influence the underlying logic of asset pricing. The focus of policy has shifted from "subsidies and transfer payments driving nominal demand" to "efficiency and technological progress driving potential growth." In this transition, the market is willing to pay a premium for assets with "verifiable cash flows and technological expansion curves," while being more cautious towards targets that rely on "high leverage, strong pro-cyclical behavior, and mere valuation expansion."

According to the latest data, the current total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $3.37 trillion, showing a retreat from previous highs, indicating that funds are temporarily withdrawing and risk appetite is decreasing; combined with the fear index falling to 20 (fear), it reflects a weak sentiment. Overall, the market is still in a mid-term correction within a long-term upward structure: the upward trend from 2023 to 2025 remains intact, but in the short term, due to macro expectation uncertainties, profit-taking, and liquidity contraction, the market has entered a phase of consolidation and digestion. In general, the trend is not broken, sentiment has turned cold, and it is in a "fear correction zone," resembling a turnover and divergence period within a bull market.

The current cryptocurrency market sentiment index (Fear & Greed Index) = 20, clearly in the fear zone, continuing to weaken compared to last week and last month. The chart shows that Bitcoin's price has experienced a high-level retreat over the past few months, with market sentiment shifting from "greed" to "fear," accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, indicating that funds are on the sidelines and risk appetite is lowering. However, this area has also returned to historically corresponding mid-term bottom or value layout zones—poorer sentiment often leads to long-term capital accumulation. In other words: short-term pessimism and increased volatility; in the medium to long term, for contrarian funds, the fear zone often breeds opportunities.

From a macroeconomic perspective, taking the U.S. as an example, after the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes from 2023 to 2025, although inflation has not fully returned to long-term anchor points, the marginal stickiness of core prices has weakened, and the supply-side recovery and inventory cycle decline have jointly driven structural easing of inflation. Policy communication has gradually shifted from strong signals of "higher for longer" to a path of "data-dependent observation—mild easing," with the interest rate expectation curve loosening downward. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is making "secondary adjustments" to the aftermath of large-scale deficits and short-duration bond issuance during the pandemic: budget constraints are tightening, the term structure is optimizing, and the marginal reduction of interest subsidies and transfers means liquidity is flowing back from the public sector to the private sector, but not in an unconditional flood; rather, it is entering more efficient and growth-oriented asset classes through the redistribution of market-based credit and risk premiums. On the other hand, the U.S. government shutdown has created a historical record, with the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) seeing a balance swell from about $800 billion to over $1 trillion due to the shutdown, effectively withdrawing about $200 billion in liquidity from the market, exacerbating the funding strain in the banking system. This explains why traditional market high-leverage cyclical goods are under pressure, while underlying technology, AI chains, and digital infrastructure receive higher "valuation tolerance": the former relies on low interest rates and high nominal demand, while the latter depends on improvements in production functions and leaps in total factor productivity, shifting the benefits from "price-driven" to "efficiency-driven."

This macro switch manifests as structural differentiation in risk assets: on one hand, the tail effects of high interest rates are still present, credit spreads have not converged to extremely low levels, and funds remain distant from targets that lack profit support, have uncertain future cash flows, and high leverage on their balance sheets; on the other hand, sectors with visible cash flows, high demand elasticity, and synchronous technology curves are receiving active capital allocation. Mapped to crypto assets, this means a shift from the previous "Bitcoin's unilateral blood-sucking rise" single-core logic to a "Bitcoin stabilization—capital sinking—narrative rotation acceleration" multi-core logic. With the increase in institutional holdings of Bitcoin, the improvement of spot ETF channels, and the optimization of on-chain derivatives structure, volatility has significantly converged, gradually assuming the function of a "risk-free collateral base": not in the absolute sense of being risk-free, but relatively speaking, it is the "most liquid, most transparent in trading, and most stable collateral across cycles." Ethereum has not experienced an explosion equivalent to Bitcoin, but its systemic importance in the settlement layer and developer ecosystem allows it to take on more of a "risk liquidity conduit" role—when market risk appetite rebounds, funds no longer stay in large-cap assets but flow through ETH and L2 to earlier, more elastic ecological assets. Thus, the most distinct structural trend in November can be summarized by three sets of inequalities: rotation > clustering, active participation > passive holding, hotspot capture > large-cap waiting. The behavior of funds has shifted from "waiting for opportunities" to "organized pursuit," and the key trading capabilities have shifted from "value digging" to "narrative identification + liquidity tracking + mechanism prediction." Among all narratives, those that can simultaneously satisfy "technology-driven and attention momentum" gain the most substantial new increments: Layer-2 has become the most effective "innovation distribution channel" due to its high density of new launches, cost advantages, and incentive designs; AI/Robotics/DePIN has high "curve convexity" the earlier it is adopted due to its connection to real production functions and relevance to machine economy (M2M) closed loops; InfoFi explores the financialization of knowledge and data value, aligning with the era's rule that "attention is a scarce resource"; Memecoin is the ultimate interpretation of "monetizing attention," carrying rapid monetization of emotions and social capital with extremely low friction costs; NFT-Fi has transformed from "avatar popularity" to a more practical paradigm of "on-chain rights and cash flows," releasing new scenarios for collateral, leasing, and profit-sharing through financial structured tools; and Presale is in a sweet spot of "low valuation—weak distribution—convex returns," becoming the most cost-effective high-volatility factor in risk budgeting. The common core running through these directions is the "four forces in one" of attention, developer contribution, incentive mechanisms, and narrative consistency: attention provides visibility and chip relay, developer contribution determines the sustainability of the supply curve, incentive mechanisms solve the cold start problem in the early stages of expansion, and narrative consistency aligns expectations with realization paths, thereby reducing discount rates.

More broadly, the medium to long-term return space of traditional financial assets is constrained in two dimensions: first, although government bond yields have peaked, they remain high, compressing the valuation elasticity of equity assets; second, global real growth momentum is weaker than in previous cycles, and corporate profit expansion relies more on efficiency than on price. In contrast, the advantage of Crypto lies in the synchronization of "technology cycles and financial innovation cycles": on one hand, the full-chain improvement of on-chain infrastructure from performance, costs to development tools significantly reduces the marginal cost of applications and the radius of trial and error; on the other hand, tokenization mechanisms and incentive engineering provide a consensus coordinator for "capital—users—developers," thus finding measurable, iterable, and distributable solutions to the cold start problem of the internet era on-chain. In other words, the risk compensation of crypto assets is no longer solely driven by volatility and leverage, but increasingly depends on "whether attention, data, and computing power can be transformed into realizable cash flows through mechanism design." When this point overlaps with the structured release of macro liquidity, the risk-adjusted return curve of Crypto shows a relative advantage over traditional assets. In terms of monetary environment, the market is experiencing a transition from "nominal easing expectations" to "actual neutrality" and then to "structural localized easing." The direction of policy interest rates is no longer unilaterally tightening, the supply structure of government bonds is becoming more refined, and the marginal improvement of credit conditions is driving down private financing costs, alleviating the refinancing pressure on existing assets, with technology and innovation chains becoming the primary beneficiaries of capital inflow. This rhythm indicates that Crypto is entering the early to mid-stage of "risk appetite recovery"—unlike the past rapid market relying solely on quantitative easing, this round resembles a marathon driven by "technological progress + narrative evolution + mechanism optimization": the upward trend is not a "single spike," but rather "multi-core driven, segmented advancement." Therefore, the most intuitive market manifestation is not "Bitcoin soaring alone," but "BTC stabilizing the base, ETH maintaining the hub, and L2/AI/InfoFi/NFT-Fi/Memecoin rotating in clusters." In this pattern, "early layout—phased realization—subsequent rotation" is the main theme, and the marginal effectiveness of the clustering logic of "sticking to one track until the end of time" is diminishing; funds need the strategic capability of "fighting to sustain the fight."

Overall, the macro transmission chain at this stage can be expressed as: fiscal retreat and deficit management → liquidity returning to the private sector → downward interest rate expectations and credit condition recovery → capital preference for "efficiency and curve convexity" → higher discount rate tolerance for technology narratives → the cryptocurrency market shifting from a single-core to a multi-core structure → structural rotation becoming dominant. From the perspective of November, our judgment is that the global macro environment has not fully transitioned to easing, but structured incremental liquidity is being released. Coupled with critical breakthroughs in the technology cycle and the maturation of distribution mechanisms, crypto assets are moving from a "single market-driven" to a "collective narrative coexisting" mid-term pattern, characterized by "local bull · structural bull"—its sustainability does not rely on the weekly chart of a single asset, but on the mutual validation of multiple subsystems within the ecosystem: developer retention and toolchain improvement validate supply, user growth and cost curves validate demand, incentive budgets and governance improvements validate mechanisms, and cross-chain settlement and compliance channels validate funding sources. Under the condition of continuous positive feedback from these variables, the market becomes healthier, more decentralized, and requires more specialized and disciplined "active participation." Therefore, the key to grasping this stage is not to guess "which coin will be the next breakout," but to establish an integrated framework of "macro—narrative—mechanism—liquidity—distribution": identifying directional changes in interest rates and deficits at the macro level, judging whether the technology curve and demand side are in sync at the narrative level, examining whether incentive designs are sustainable at the mechanism level, tracking the real migration of costs, market making, and social flows at the liquidity level, and assessing the comprehensive efficiency of presales—airdrops—rankings—points—NFT-Fi—social media matrices at the distribution level. Only under the premise of a closed-loop framework can the three sets of inequalities "rotation > clustering, active > passive, hotspots > large market cap" avoid becoming mere slogans and instead transform into executable, trackable, and reusable strategic methodologies.

II. Track Analysis and Macro Outlook

Entering the cryptocurrency market of 2025–2026, the most critical driving force has quietly undergone a structural transformation. Interest rates and macro variables still constitute the underlying Beta of the market, but the true source of significant excess returns has shifted from "macro sentiment → asset pricing" to the triple resonance of "narrative × technology × distribution mechanism." The characteristics of the new cycle are accelerated evolution of the technological base, shortened narrative propagation links, and more decentralized capital distribution, resulting in unprecedented price elasticity and style rotation speed. In this context, Presales, Memecoin, AI×Robotics×DePIN×x402, InfoFi, and DAT (Digital Asset Treasury-type pre-IPO companies) have become the most directionally certain main lines for the next 6–18 months.

Presales will be the clearest and most structurally rewarding opportunity window in the coming year. Its advantage does not stem from traditional notions of "undervaluation," but from time structure and distribution structure. Due to the relatively low valuation of tokens in the early stages, the market information is relatively opaque, and the entry barriers are high, resulting in a huge information gap and execution gap. Many people know about a certain project but cannot obtain quotas; they may get quotas but do not know how to complete distribution or reinvest after the TGE; they may know how to exit but cannot find new entry points in the next round. The real α lies not in "knowing," but in the complete chain of "knowing → obtaining → exiting → returning." Whether it is L2 new asset issuance, AI native projects, InfoFi builders, or Meme original language experiments, their early stages will release a return potential of 20× to 50× during the presale phase. The key to presales is not "hitting the mark," but deeply embedding into information networks, capital networks, and distribution networks, transforming information advantages into executable profit cycles. This means that in the new cycle, excellent participants are not only researchers but also executors. Accompanying presales is the eternal narrative of Memecoin. Meme has never been about value investment; it is the embodiment of attention economy and narrative arbitrage, the most agile α carrier in the crypto space. In the past two cycles, we have clearly seen the transition of the main battlefield: in 2021 it was on BSC, in 2023–2024 it was on Solana, and in 2025 it enters a bipolar era of Solana and Base. The logic is extremely simple: the faster, cheaper, and more community-mobilizing the chain, the more suitable it is for Meme execution. The core of Meme is not "what it is," but "who is speaking, who is promoting, who is distributing," forming a high-speed cycle of "narrative → attention → liquidity → pullback → reconstruction." Once a breakout narrative is formed, assets can achieve significant price increases within weeks and quickly complete distribution. Its essence is the market reaching a consensus on a certain symbol in a short time and completing a tangible speculative behavior on-chain. Although the risks are extremely high, the high agility, high iteration, and high explosion make it an expression that cannot be ignored in each cycle.

In contrast to the above tactical tracks, AI×Robotics×DePIN×x402 represents the most certain technological main line of the new cycle, which will give rise to a long-term trend similar to that of Bitcoin in its early days. The value of AI has never been limited to cognition itself, but lies in its entry into the production system as an economic entity. When AI models evolve into autonomous agents capable of executing tasks, signing transactions, settling, and self-maintaining on-chain, machines will become economic units, forming an "M2M" (machine-to-machine) economic structure. Blockchain provides machines with identity, settlement, and incentive systems, granting them the authority to participate in the economic cycle. The importance of x402 lies in creating automation payment and settlement infrastructure aimed at internet-native applications, allowing value exchange between AIs, thus giving rise to new asset forms such as machine wallets, on-chain leasing markets, robotic asset rights, and automatic yields. The current stage is still very early, and business models have yet to be defined, but precisely because of this, the expectation gap is enormous, making it the most promising intersection of "technology × finance" in the coming years. Key assets such as CODEC, ROBOT, DPTX, BOT, EDGE, and PRXS are all being built around machine identity, computing power incentives, and AI agency economy. AI×Crypto is essentially unaffected by regulatory cycles because it is driven by technological expansion rather than policy will. This means it will become a structural trend on par with the "birth of the internet" or the "widespread adoption of smartphones." Meanwhile, InfoFi (knowledge finance) has become the most creative narrative of the new cycle. It is not simply "selling information," but transforming knowledge contribution, validation, and distribution into measurable and incentivized economic behavior. In the traditional internet, the economic returns of information are more captured by platforms, whereas in InfoFi, contributors, validators, and distributors can all gain rights, forming a "three-sided win" structure. Its core mechanism is: Create → Validate → Rank → Reward. Once value is expressed on-chain, it becomes a tradable and combinable asset form, leading to a new market structure of Crypto version TikTok (traffic) × Bloomberg (analysis) × DeFi (incentives). It addresses the issues of high information noise and distorted incentives in Web2, while opening up the possibility for analysts, judges, and organizers to profit. Typical platforms include wallchain, xeetdotai, Kaito, cookie3, etc., transforming information from "private intellectual assets" into "public digital rights," making it a narrative intersection worth paying attention to.

It is important to emphasize the DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) direction, also known as the market's colloquial "Crypto-equity" track, which will become one of the structural investment themes in the next 6–18 months. The core logic of DAT does not rely on business operations but rather on importing the valuation of on-chain assets into traditional capital markets through a public company shell + crypto asset positions. The principle is that companies allocate cash assets to mainstream crypto assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and SUI, managing assets through market value, staking returns, and derivative strategies, and reflecting the market value in the company's stock price, thus forming a cross-market price transmission from "on-chain assets → secondary stock market." MSTR (MicroStrategy) is one of the earliest examples, and starting in 2025, the SUI treasury company SUIG will become a new representative, holding over 100 million SUI with a market value of approximately $300–400 million, providing investors with a new asset allocation method through the combination of "public company + treasury strategy" and ecological narrative. The advantage of DAT lies in: on one hand, it can provide a compliant bridge for traditional funds to enter the crypto market, and on the other hand, it can map the Crypto Narrative to the TradFi pricing system, thus forming a new two-way capital cycle of "Web3 assets → Nasdaq consensus." In the next 6–18 months, DAT will focus on "SUI, SOL, and AI Narrative," with potential directions including treasury structure optimization, staking yield growth, asset diversification (BTC, ETH), and collaboration with L1/L2 strategies. Such assets possess a composite attribute of "longing for ecology + longing for tokens + longing for risk premiums," making them a powerful new capital tool.

In summary, the main theme of the future cryptocurrency market will be "narrative rotation × distribution efficiency × execution capability." Presales and Memes provide high-frequency α, AI×Crypto offers long-term β combined with structural α, InfoFi reconstructs value capture mechanisms, while DAT establishes a capital bridge between Web3 and traditional finance. The winners of the new cycle will not be those who "know the most," but those who complete the cycle of "cognition → participation → distribution → reinvestment." Information is not an asset; execution and circulation are the assets. The real growth model is to continuously participate in the early stages, binding the distribution system, and completing capital compounding within the narrative cycle. In the next 6–18 months, the cryptocurrency market will shift from "macro-driven" to "technology and narrative-driven." This is not a cycle that only requires patience, but one that requires action. Narrative × Technology × Distribution will shape the next generation of winners, and the acceleration of structure has already begun.

III. Risks and Challenges

Looking ahead to the next year, while the structural opportunities in the cryptocurrency market are clear, the macroeconomic environment still presents unavoidable external risks and systemic challenges; these variables not only determine the pace of liquidity release but will also profoundly impact narrative intensity, asset valuation, and the boundaries of industry expansion. The greatest uncertainty comes from regulation, on-chain operational complexity, multi-chain fragmentation, user cognitive costs, narrative rhythm, and asymmetry in information structure, which also imply a cyclical mismatch between institutions and retail investors, forming inherent barriers to strategic competition. Against the backdrop of a long-term structural bull market, these risks do not necessarily block the trend but will determine the steepness of the yield curve and the radius of volatility.

Regulation has always been a key variable affecting the medium- to long-term resilience of crypto assets. Although the trend of policy easing in the U.S., represented by spot ETFs, has released some positive signals, the regulatory framework still exhibits fragmentation, multi-centrality, and lagging characteristics, making it difficult for legislative efforts to keep pace with the growth of asset scale. For institutions, regulatory clarity determines the upper limit of allocation; for retail investors, the direction of regulation affects confidence and risk appetite. There are still frictions in Europe and the U.S. regarding exchange regulation, anti-money laundering, custody standards, and compliance responsibilities in DeFi, making it difficult to form a unified stance in the short term, which may trigger local policy headwinds or discontinuities. On the other hand, the Asian market is relatively proactive in advancing licensing systems and regulatory sandbox systems, but structurally it is also in a cycle of "increased openness—regulatory exploration—institutional caution—application exploration." It is foreseeable that regulatory uncertainty will continue to affect cross-border capital flows, maintaining a pricing stratification in the market between "compliant assets—gray assets." This means that while there may not be a systemic regulatory shock in the coming year, the gradual constraints of regulation will become a force for valuation suppression, especially posing risks to high-volatility, untraceable, and structurally ambiguous assets.

The complexity of on-chain operations also restricts large-scale adoption. Despite significant improvements in development tools and user experience over the past two years, on-chain interactions still involve multiple steps and thresholds: signing, authorization, cross-chain operations, gas management, and risk assessment still require active understanding from users; although wallet logic has improved, it has not yet reached the implicit process experience of Web2. For on-chain applications to reach "internet-level scale," they need to allow the vast majority of users to access them seamlessly, rather than relying on a highly knowledgeable group. Currently, the interaction between wallets and protocols still leans towards engineering language, requiring users to navigate multiple steps of "wallet—signing—gas—risk—execution," where any error in one link can lead to losses, and the existing protection systems are still inadequate. In other words, operational complexity leads to an underestimation of the true scale of market participants; this means that under narrative-driven conditions, real funds cannot quickly convert into active users, creating a bottleneck in the conversion of "traffic—value." For project teams, this is a limitation on growth and distribution capabilities; for investors, it is a delaying factor in narrative realization; for institutions, it is a source of increased difficulty in compliance operations and user protection. The parallel existence of multiple chains accelerates competition and fragmentation. The explosion of L2 has brought ecological prosperity, but at the same time has led to the dispersion of funds and users across multiple execution environments, with varying standards between ecosystems, incomplete data interoperability, and bridge risks for cross-chain assets, ultimately increasing systemic uncertainty. Due to the fragmented state of liquidity, single-chain ecosystems struggle to form an accelerating cycle of "scale—depth—innovation," while cross-chain bridges create security gaps in the market. In recent years, many large hacking incidents have been related to cross-chain components, making it difficult for institutions to use cross-chain assets and causing retail investors to shy away from the risks of liquidity migration across chains, resulting in structural inefficiencies. Meanwhile, the multi-chain environment leads to narrative overload, making it difficult for users to quickly assess the real connections between "ecosystem—assets—mechanisms," causing attention to be scattered and research costs to rise, further increasing the degree of information asymmetry.

The cost of user understanding remains an inherent barrier to industry development. From payment logic, asset management, risk models, incentive design to narrative judgment, crypto not only requires users to have financial literacy but also to understand multiple elements such as cryptography, game theory, and economic mechanisms. The industry still lacks mature financial education and transparency in mechanisms, leading most participants to enter with a "speculative mindset," making it difficult to form a stable participation structure. In the context of rapid narrative iteration, user education lags behind, causing high-cognition individuals to benefit while low-cognition individuals are more likely to become liquidity grave diggers. The heavier the cognitive burden, the greater the risk of centralization. Funds cannot be evenly distributed, leading to a barbell structure: one end consists of elite executors, while the other end consists of blind participants lacking knowledge, resulting in a severe imbalance in profit distribution.

The short narrative cycle and highly competitive emotions have led the market to exhibit a tendency towards "ultra-short-term trading." In an environment of rapid information transmission, the speed of main narrative updates significantly outpaces the actual development pace of projects, causing a disconnection between project value and price, with narrative peaks prematurely exhausting expectations, making it difficult to translate into long-term results. Projects are forced to chase narratives to attract attention, even offering high incentives to exchange for short-term activity, rather than building structural value. Emotional competition causes user behavior to degrade from "research—judgment—action" to "following trends—speculation—escape," resulting in a pulsing rotation in the market. While this can generate excess returns in the short term, it will harm the developer ecosystem and capital accumulation in the long term, thus affecting the fundamentals of the industry. Unequal distribution of alpha information is one of the most core structural challenges in the industry. On-chain data is transparent, but the information structure is highly stratified. High-level players possess complex information, including capital flows, incentive structures, distribution paths, development progress, and social expectations, while ordinary participants can only rely on secondary dissemination and social media noise to make judgments. With the rise of presales, points, airdrops, and leaderboard competition mechanisms, information asymmetry has not only failed to narrow but has deepened: on-chain capital flows are becoming faster, and layout rhythms are increasingly advanced, with the "research—participation—realization" chain continuously being pulled forward. Those who can understand mechanisms, master distribution strategies, and gain insights into capital structures are more likely to enter while projects are still in their infancy; ordinary users often only become aware during the narrative amplification phase, resulting in structural disadvantages. It is evident that information inequality is not a technical issue but a game-theoretic issue, and it will continue to expand in the future. A deeper challenge arises from the "cyclical mismatch" between institutions and retail investors. Institutional funds prefer stability, safety, and sustainable cash flows; retail investors prefer volatility, narratives, and quick realizations. Due to the different behavioral models of the two, the market volatility structure exhibits a "long-short split": institutions allocate Bitcoin and other collateral layer assets over the medium to long term, while retail investors chase L2, AI, memecoins, and emerging applications over the medium to short term. The two are not pursuing the same set of assets, the same mechanisms, or the same timelines. When macro liquidity fluctuates, institutions steadily buy in while retail investors frequently exit, leading to unequal returns; when narratives surge, institutions often do not participate, causing the market to ultimately return to calm. This structure means that retail investors, if lacking strategic capabilities, often find themselves at a disadvantage.

Returning to the market itself, Bitcoin's role is shifting from "speculative asset" to "stable collateral layer." This is not a negative signal of slowing growth but a sign of maturation: convergence of volatility, deepening liquidity, and increasing institutional share make BTC closer to the positioning of "risk-free on-chain collateral," with the long-term goal of becoming a value anchor across ecosystems. ETH occupies a core settlement layer role in structural growth but struggles to outperform high-momentum narratives; true excess returns come from earlier, lighter structures, and faster distribution tracks, including L2 ecosystems, AI machine economies, presales, short-cycle memecoins, InfoFi, and NFT-Fi. The market is entering a structural bull rather than a comprehensive bull, with liquidity showing directional release, no longer universally lifting all assets; this means that in the coming year, competition will transition from "holding" to "track selection + rotation execution." Future funds will favor mechanism design, liquidity distribution, attention structures, and real adoption, rather than merely products, white papers, or imagination. Narrative creates liquidity, liquidity brings opportunity, and opportunity can be transformed into alpha. In other words, narrative is not the goal; it is a channel that guides liquidity into mechanisms; what truly generates sustained returns is the synergy of structural design, ecological accumulation, and user adoption. Therefore, risks and opportunities always coexist. The uncertainty of the macro economy will continue to test the endogenous resilience of the crypto industry. Those who truly understand structure, master liquidity, and possess execution capabilities will gain an advantage in the future rotation cycle.

IV. Conclusion

As of November 2025, the crypto market is at a structural turning point. The U.S. government shutdown has led to a contraction in liquidity, withdrawing about $200 billion from the market, exacerbating the tightness of the venture capital market, and the macro environment is not optimistic. On the other hand, the crypto market has transitioned from "single-core driven" to "multi-line advancement," with structural rotation replacing comprehensive euphoria, and narrative, mechanism, and distribution capabilities becoming dominant forces. While BTC remains the underlying reserve, it no longer monopolizes growth dividends; new curves such as AI, L2, InfoFi, machine economy, and memecoins bear the main elasticity, shifting the market focus from the assets themselves to ecosystems, scenarios, and distribution systems. Presale, AI, InfoFi, and memecoins will become the four main engines of the future cycle. In the next three years, AI×Crypto, M2M machine economy, and knowledge finance will jointly form the underlying logic of a new round of long-term growth. The winners of this round will not be those with the earliest information or the largest funds, but those who can complete the most effective distribution within the correct narrative. The market has shifted from "holding" to "executing," from "emotional speculation" to "structural delivery." With the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the recovery of macro liquidity, a structural bull market may begin, and will continue to accelerate with the synergy of innovation and capital.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。