"Having HYPE means being a winner."
Author: Omnia.hl π
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Obvious Summary
There is no doubt that Hyperliquid is once again having its year, and this victory is nothing short of overwhelming. This is the first time in nearly six months that I am writing about this ecosystem again, perhaps marking my longest "silent period." This article will cover a series of observations, all supporting Hyperliquid's trajectory of development over a long time dimension—continuously climbing in magnitude.
So far, Hyperliquid's performance can be described as "crazy." It has been breaking its own historical records almost every month, from trading volume to user numbers, revenue, and other metrics, without exception. Undoubtedly, Hyperliquid has become the biggest threat to centralized trading platforms since the rise of electronic trading, and its impact on traditional forces is as profound as the internet's disruption of information dissemination.
Today, it is no longer speculation to say that hundreds of teams are building on Hyperliquid. From our own team @kinetiq_xyz to various fields in DeFi and numerous teams developing retail applications, Hyperliquid's ecosystem is rapidly expanding.
However, many people may not immediately grasp the magnitude of this success. Some may attribute it to its closed-source nature, lack of deep interaction with the community at the foundational or team level (to put it bluntly: not providing any funding or special treatment), or believe it is merely due to the performance of daily perpetual contract trading volume.
But their misjudgment and complacency are precisely where (you) our opportunity lies.
Hyperliquid: Breaking the Conventional Underlying Logic
Before delving deeper, you must understand that Hyperliquid is a complete outlier. Its existence breaks the existing industry pattern, embodying the ultimate expression of "a square trying to fit into a round hole," continuously challenging and subverting the rules of the game it aims to destroy.
Every existing blockchain—yes, including Bitcoin (the most controversial exception, as a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system") and Ethereum—is not built around flagship applications designed for the chain itself. Almost all applications are developed on top of 99.99999% of blockchains, meaning these use cases or applications are developed by external forces outside the core team or the core purpose of the chain, and then migrated to or directly built on the underlying network. There are various reasons behind this phenomenon, the most common being obviously unsustainable monetary incentives (such as direct biased funding, adverse selection, guaranteed "magic tokens," etc.), while the technology itself (like TPS, privacy, etc.) is often a secondary factor, although it does have some impact.
Perhaps most people today are still unclear (which is understandable), but Hyperliquid was initially built on the Tendermint consensus mechanism and will only transition to a fully customized implementation of Hotstuff in May 2024, with the consensus mechanism named HyperBFT.
In my view, @asxn_r's research on HyperBFT to date remains the most advanced, and you can learn more through the following link: Hyperliquid: The Hyperoptimized Order.
An interesting (and extremely brief) snippet showcases the situation of Hyperliquid before the change in consensus mechanism, revealed through a brief conversation by @pbr713 and @iliensinc in January 2023 (four months before I joined Discord).
To highlight the speed of Hyperliquid's development: after announcing HyperBFT in April 2024, the mainnet deployment was completed in just two weeks. There was no so-called "decentralized performance," paid media promotion, pre-release tours, or other formalism. The introduction of HyperBFT propelled Hyperliquid to become the most powerful blockchain today, capable of processing 200,000 transactions per second (TPS). Hyperliquid continues to break the social barriers that the "old forces" attempt to establish around it, such as introducing permissionless validators at the end of 2024, initially with only 11 nodes, which has now increased to 24, including 5 foundation nodes.
As I mentioned earlier, several key factors led me to discover and pursue using Hyperliquid:
A severely underrated podcast hosted by @chameleon_jeff.
Perpetual contract DEXs are not new, but this is the first built on a custom chain.
During a time when high-frequency trading (HFT) and other trading forms are highly attractive, Jeff's intellectual charm and affability deeply attracted @0xmagnus and me.
Hyperliquid is the most ideal "faith community" you can find.
Extreme capitalism-driven, immune to the typical foundation-style "socialization" influence.
A strong preference for high risk, and proud of it.
A wide range of people with IQs from single digits to triple digits are forced into this ever-expanding arena.
Hyperliquid adheres to an absolute and uncompromising "internal asceticism" principle in its operations.
It has not raised funds from any venture capital (VC), forcing potential buyers to purchase only on the open market, with all transactions being transparent and public;
It has not accepted any liquidity provider (LP) agreements, nor paid market maker fees to obtain liquidity, yet has attracted massive liquidity on its own (and continues to grow);
It does not disclose information to any third parties, with all announcements being released simultaneously through official channels, ensuring transparency and fairness of information.
To truly understand the underlying logic of Hyperliquid, you must first grasp the normalcy of the industry's game rules, and how Hyperliquid breaks these rules in real-time and will continue to subvert them.
My Speculation on Remaining HYPE Community Distribution
There are countless speculations about the future HYPE distribution beyond the two rounds of "seasons" that have already occurred. While I agree with some views on the remaining HYPE distribution, I am increasingly convinced of my theory as Hyperliquid's influence continues to expand: the remaining HYPE will be gradually burned, or all at once.
My main inference is based on: burning HYPE is the most objective way to clearly reflect proportional and unbiased value for existing HYPE holders, without needing to incentivize specific activities (similar to the BNB burn mechanism, but completely free of any misconduct). This way, those who wish to gain benefits only need to make a simple and direct choice—hold HYPE like the rest of us.
Reference: https://www.hypeburn.fun/ by @janklimo
Rebuttals to My Theory:
If HYPE is burned, the team's token distribution ratio will increase unless the team reduces its current total supply share to match the ~25% distribution ratio of circulating tokens, forming the final supply.
Hyperliquid may view future incentives as the most strategically significant path, focusing on expanding activities within its ecosystem to achieve growth and deliver a heavy blow to competing products and ecosystems.
Perhaps both will occur, with a portion of HYPE being burned and another portion used for growth plans.
Perhaps there will be no clear decision on this in the foreseeable future, but rather waiting for the best timing to execute.
Surprisingly, regardless of whether my theory is correct, this question is actually not important. The success of HYPE is almost destined, regardless of the final choice.
Data Performance
Challenging the Giant Binance: By the end of September 2024, Hyperliquid's trading volume accounted for about 14% of Binance's weekly trading volume.
Impact on the Spot Market: By the end of August 2024, Hyperliquid's trading volume in the spot market reached about 7%, demonstrating its potential to further weaken Binance's dominance. For example, @hyperunit made Hyperliquid one of the cheapest platforms for trading spot BTC.
Supply and Demand Dynamics of HYPE: Despite a recent market downturn, the RFS (Ready-For-Sale) HYPE remains close to historical lows, indicating tight supply.
The usage of HYPE in HyperEVM and the aid fund continues to grow, with 99% of transaction fees directly used to repurchase HYPE, driving the expansion of the ecosystem.
Scarcity and Demand Growth: SWPE (Circulating Supply and Price Elasticity Indicator) is at a historical low, while the 30-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) revenue is close to historical lows and highs, indicating a trend of decreasing circulating supply and increasing demand.
Programmatic Buyback Mechanism: The HYPE protocol automatically repurchases more HYPE from the open market based on market prices and volatility. At the current revenue and price levels, the aid fund only needs 1.29 years to repurchase all RFS supply of HYPE.
Trillions of Dollars
As of today, Hyperliquid's cumulative trading volume has exceeded $3.13 trillion.
However, the global financial market size reaches several hundred trillion dollars, if not more. For Hyperliquid, this seems like an almost impossible goal, but it is precisely the direction it ultimately aims for.
In an interview with TBPN, when asked "How big can Hyperliquid get?", Jeff's answer was thought-provoking. His comments revealed the team's unwavering belief in the Hyperliquid system, even though its current scale seems insignificant, they believe that one day Hyperliquid will be able to carry the entire liquidity of global finance.
"If Hyperliquid succeeds, it will become an unprecedented existence in this world."
Hyperliquid has become one of the most profit-efficient enterprises globally, currently consisting of only 11 members, yet its annual revenue has exceeded $1.5 billion, equivalent to about $136 million in profit generated per employee. And Hyperliquid's history spans just three short years.
As Hyperliquid's influence continues to grow, Wall Street has begun to take notice of its existence. In one way or another, traditional finance will eventually get involved.
The technological innovations of Hyperliquid are also noteworthy, including several groundbreaking achievements such as HIP-3 and CoreWriter, all realized through continuous weekly network upgrades, with the upgrade process rarely exceeding a few minutes of downtime.
Today, Hyperliquid has become the first project in the industry to combine an efficient on-chain trading platform with a thriving DeFi ecosystem. An increasing number of developers and traders are flocking to this ecosystem, driving its development into a unique financial center. From a simple mathematical logic perspective, this trend will only further enhance Hyperliquid's value.
It is expected that before 2028, we will see the price of HYPE reach at least $2000. This is no longer a question of "whether it will happen," but rather "when it will happen."
"Having HYPE means being a winner."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
