《Mr. Xiaolong · Today's Insights》 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly shrink by 23,000, September rate hike probability plummets❗️ Hey friends, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls just came in with an unexpected drop of 23,000 (forecast: +80,000), and June's previous figure was revised down to +20,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, creating a contradictory combo of "shrinking employment + declining unemployment rate." Now, let me break down the positive impact of this nonfarm payroll data on the financial markets for you. **U.S. Stocks:** After the data release, futures for the three major stock indices all surged, with Nasdaq futures up 0.59%. The market logic has shifted from "rate hike expectations" to "rate cut expectations," easing short-term pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. But the drop in the unemployment rate signals that inflation risks remain, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. **Bitcoin:** Before the employment data release, BTC strongly broke through the key $65,000 level with high volume, a level it had previously struggled to surpass. If employment continues to weaken, improved liquidity expectations will continue to support BTC prices. BTC has already priced in the positive impact of the nonfarm payroll data, with bulls dominating the current trend. Bears remain on the sidelines, and the price is likely to follow the first scenario I outlined earlier—rebounding upward with a target price around $66,500. **Gold:** Gold prices have already climbed above $4,300. If employment continues to weaken, the target could head straight for $4,360. The rise in gold isn't just about safe-haven demand; it's also a bet on the Fed nearing a monetary policy pivot. **In summary:** Shrinking employment provides data support for rate cut expectations, but the drop in the unemployment rate means the Fed will remain cautious. The market is trading on "rate cut expectations" first, then reassessing inflation risks. The short-term direction is clear, but the rebound process for Bitcoin and U.S. stocks won't be smooth sailing. Keep the music playing, keep the rebound going! For now, don't go short—stick to a bullish outlook in the short term. —— Mr. Xiaolong #NonfarmPayrolls #BTC #USStocks #Gold #FederalReserve #MacroEconomy