Changxin is listed, and the person who is most saddened is Yang Guoqiang from Country Garden Changxin, the largest technology IPO in A-share history. Three years ago, Country Garden acquired 901 million shares for 2 billion yuan, and today its market value exceeds 20 billion yuan, tenfold. But Yang Guoqiang didn't wait, and the original price was transferred to Hefei State owned Assets. Some people say it's fate. Damn it. This is the balance sheet. In 2021, the real estate industry will plummet, and the insurance and delivery buildings will be at the top of the mountain. The cash flow will be broken, and the soldiers will be cut off. Bet on the future, but be dragged down the table by the leverage of the old world. Country Garden has seen technology. Established in 2018, Bozhilin specializes in building robots with a team of 3000 people and over 1300 patents. Later on, he also developed a catering robot and opened a restaurant called "Tianjiang Cuisine". It has fully bet on the future, but its fate is always rooted in real estate. Ironically, in the year of investing in Changxin in 2021, Country Garden acquired land worth over 320 billion yuan. My left hand wants to grab the ticket for the new world, while my right hand is still fully in at the gambling table in the old world. This is not a strategic mistake, it is greed. The hardest part of investing is not choosing the right one. Keep holding it until the times bring it to fruition. The four words' always holding 'are backed by healthy cash flow, low leverage, and no burning money business waiting to be fed. What Yang Guoqiang lacks is not vision, but a balance sheet that can withstand three years. 6. Currently, the "15th Five Year Plan" for expanding consumption includes houses in the "consumption of bulk durable goods" category, alongside automobiles and household appliances. The signal is straightforward enough: houses have transformed from investment products to consumer goods. In the past, I bought the location and expected price increases, while in the future, I bought residential and service properties. The era of buying a house and getting rich has turned over. 7/Changxin issued at a price of 8.66 yuan, with a total share capital of 66.881 billion shares and an initial circulation of only 6.73%. The plate is extremely small, and emotions are easily amplified. I predict that the opening price will be 38-42 yuan, and in the short term, it may touch 55-60 yuan, and then gradually decline. It is impossible to fall below the issue price within this year, but it is also difficult to replicate Maotai and Tencent's long bull market. 8/Why? Calculate an account. If the stock price exceeds 41.3 yuan, Changxin is the largest A-share market value; Exceeding 54.3 yuan, surpassing Tencent; Exceeding 211.8 yuan, exceeding TSMC. The corresponding P/E ratios are 24 times, 32 times, and 124 times. 9/The average PE on the Sci Tech Innovation Board is about 90 times, which seems reasonable at 124 times. But don't forget, Samsung, the global DRAM leader, and SK Hynix, the second largest, have a forward-looking PE of only 6-8 times. NVIDIA is 27 times larger. Changxin is ranked fourth in the world, but its products are not as advanced as theirs, its market share is not as high as theirs, and it has been sanctioned and restricted in developed country markets. 10/A-shares give 90 times, Korean stocks give 6 times. This is not a valuation difference, this is two worlds. One relies on emotions, and the other relies on cash flow. Speculating on new products is foolish, not investment. 11/But this is not bearish on Changxin. AI is a historic technological revolution, and storage is the infrastructure of AI. Changxin is the backbone of China's storage chips and has long-term value. The problem is: good things also have a price. Buying a strong cycle company with 100 times PE is not called faith, it's called gambling. The biggest risk for ordinary people in this type of IPO is not missing out, but taking on high positions. Historical super bull stocks often sit on the bench in the early stages of listing. When Maotai and Tencent first went public, no one competed. It is often PetroChina that is robbed of its head. The story of Country Garden and Changxin's IPO are about the same thing: when the times change, if you hold the wrong assets and add the wrong leverage, even the biggest behemoth will fall. Having a clear understanding of the cycle is more important than comprehending the technology.