In recent years, BTC, US stocks, and A-shares have all typically bottomed out after about a year. A lot of people are starting to summarize this as some kind of 'pattern.' But in my opinion, this is just a phase-specific phenomenon, not a long-term rule. The synchronization over the past few years essentially stems from the highly aligned global liquidity cycle—massive monetary easing post-pandemic, followed by aggressive global rate hikes. Almost all risk assets have been moving in the same rhythm. However, moving forward, this synchronization is very likely to break. The policy cycles in Europe and the UK have already started to diverge from the U.S., and Japan is also striving to move away from its long-term ultra-loose policies. What we’re more likely to see in the future is: different economies, different monetary policies, and different asset cycles. So, instead of focusing on 'it’s been a year, is it time to bottom fish,' it’s better to focus on the variables that truly determine market direction: Liquidity, policy cycles, and profit cycles. Markets don’t reverse just because time has passed, but because the logic driving the market has changed. #Macroeconomics #GlobalLiquidity #FederalReserve #Investing #Crypto #Bitcoin