Last night, the US stock market opened high and fell, followed by a reversal and continued to decline. The core is still what was mentioned in last night's tweet, and the market is beginning to accept the possibility that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates in December. 1. The non farm payroll in September can only affect its short-term market situation and market expectations, but after all, it has been two months and it is difficult to influence the Fed's decisions; 2. Due to the delayed release of November data (the non farm payroll for November has been postponed to December 16th, and the November CPI release date has not been determined yet, but the market naturally believes it will be postponed), without key data guidance, the Federal Reserve and the market do not have a key anchor point for evaluating inflation and employment. In addition, due to the current internal differences in the Federal Reserve's views, there is a high probability that they will continue to maintain conservatism and caution. That is to say, there is a high probability that the December interest rate meeting will not cut interest rates, so we will remain inactive. But the market should not have fully priced it yet, especially since the probability of interest rate cuts from non farm payrolls in September last night has increased, which is actually a short-term disturbance. 3. Next, it depends on whether the PCE data for October (PCE is released by the Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Commerce and CPI is released by the Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Labor) will be released as scheduled next Thursday, as PCE is the most important inflation data for the Federal Reserve. See what happens to PCE's data. 4. Then let's look at the market's valuation of not cutting interest rates in December. How to see if the market has already fully priced 12 without interest rate cuts? If the probability of CME or PolyMarket not cutting interest rates in December drops to single digits or even zero, does it mean that the market has already priced in December's no interest rate cut? Of course, this pricing process is also the most difficult time for the market 5. We talked about it a long time ago that although the US government has ended its shutdown, it will take at least two weeks to fully restore normalcy, and some people may need longer time to replenish liquidity from the TGA account expenditures of the Ministry of Finance. And in the previous tweet about the possibility of the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet in the future, https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/1991005823351611431? As discussed in s=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, the release of TGA accounts cannot bring the bank reserve size back to the median level of the past three years (if it does not reach the median level, then liquidity is still sufficient but not excessive, only sufficient and excess is beneficial to the market). Stopping the balance sheet reduction can drive some progress, but ultimately it still requires the support of the Federal Reserve's bond purchase and expansion. However, the possible time for expanding the balance sheet may be later, possibly the December interest rate meeting or the January interest rate meeting. 6. Of course, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates at the December meeting, Powell's statement is likely to be moderate, and the logic has also been discussed in last night's tweets. On the contrary, I hope the market pricing will be more comprehensive before the December meeting. There are many things that can be seen from the December interest rate discussion: 1) As the new candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman is about to be determined, how do FOMC voters see next year's interest rate trend 2) Predict the trend of inflation. In a tweet from early September, https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/196268669268400973? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has discussed personal views on inflation and the derivation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. 3) Another issue is when to return to purchasing bonds to expand the balance sheet after stopping the reduction. This has been mentioned several times by New York Fed President Williams recently. This article is sponsored by the meme trading tool http://(xxyy. io) | Fast trading, versatile features, and can be used to monitor on chain wallets @useXXYYio