After hitting bottom in April, with news of a series of tariff easing in May, global capital markets are no longer panicking and have entered a rebound trend. Encryption has performed well in this process, especially in Da Bing, completely emerging from its decline and reaching new highs. There are influences from the overall environment, as well as the independent market of encryption itself, the implementation of several state strategic reserve laws, a series of favorable regulatory measures, the key promotion of stablecoin laws, the trend towards tokenization has emerged, the upgrade of Ethereum and a series of reform actions, and most importantly, the entry of a large number of institutions with real money and silver. The favorable news and price improvement have temporarily made us cryptocurrency investors forget about the impact of the macro environment. Forgetting the repeated delays in the expectation of interest rate cuts, forgetting that tariffs may still cause inflation in the future, forgetting that the possibility of economic recession is not small, forgetting that the valuation of US stocks is still high, forgetting that the crisis of US bonds has not been resolved, forgetting whether there will be another major crisis on the way. Fortunately, Trump's repeated tariffs remind us at all times - don't forget that the capital market is still in my hands, no one can ignore the macro, and no one can ignore my influence on the macro. Will there be a major crisis? This issue has been on the table since the significant increase in US Treasury bonds in 2021. After 22 years of aggressive interest rate hikes, it has been asserted that a crisis is bound to come. The banking crisis of 2023 was often referred to as the beginning of the crisis, but in the fourth quarter of 2023, there was an unexpected recovery in the capital market, and in 2024, it continued to rise. The US stock market, Bitcoin, and gold all reached new highs, creating a prosperous scene. At the beginning of the 25th year, Trump started to run around the market. In April, Rocket and equivalent tariffs were thrown out, apparently in an attempt to decouple from the world, which frightened the market. Can you ease it a bit? The market, especially the US stock market, is about to return to its peak again. It seems that there is no fear of tariffs, economic recession, high interest rates, future inflation, or anything else. Here is the credit of AI, a huge technological opportunity. Bringing excellent performance and stable growth to the seven giants, the impressive financial reports have made the market forget the danger. Although interest rates are high, the money printed in the past few years, coupled with the continuous issuance of US bonds, has led to abundant funds in the US capital market due to the poor global situation. It has to be said that the financial advantage of the United States is unmatched. But I think we cannot ignore the existence of crisis. Unless the continuous outbreak of AI brings new economic miracles to the world, crises are likely to be inevitable in the current environment. It's either a technological explosion or a war, or a financial crisis. Always maintain a sense of crisis. I see that many people have already started guessing how much the pancake will reach by the end of this year. I am not very fond of predicting the top and bottom, and I do not have the ability to guess correctly. In the last bull market, I guessed that the pancake could break through $120000, but four years have passed and it has not broken yet. I won't guess anymore. The top escape plan from the previous round will still be effective in this round. The lesson I have learned from my several years of cryptocurrency investment career is that you should never change your long-term predictions just because of changes in coin prices, especially during bear markets and long-term downturns, because it is often at that time that your judgment is the most objective and accurate. A bull market will generate new variables, new environments, new stories, and new logic. Adjustments should be made appropriately based on these, but we cannot completely deduce and start over, just like we cannot assume that there will be no crisis just because the capital market is all at a new high. We must value common sense, rather than going with the flow and following the price. When the price of pancakes dropped to 50000, Germany and Mentougou felt that the market was finished selling pancakes. When Ethereum drops to 1400 and Gas on the chain continues to hit new lows, it feels like Ethereum is running out. When Trump became president, many people made money on Trump. They thought it was reasonable for Trump to become the richest man in the world because of his coins. The sustained high proportion of the pancake market makes it feel that there is only pancake in this industry, and there is no hope for the cryptocurrency industry. The big cake keeps rising, the micro strategy keeps buying, and the ETF keeps buying, thinking it's going to have an eternal bull market. In the cryptocurrency market, the least reliable aspect is sustainability. Any market situation is only temporary, not long-lasting. Many things, not only for five or ten years, but also for a year or a month, cannot continue. The hype cycle of MEME has already reached a point where it takes only a few minutes to calculate, and there is no other way. This is the inevitable result of stir frying old leeks. The only thing that has sustainability is that the pancake will not disappoint anyone who holds it, but many people know it but cannot take action. Maintaining restraint on future expectations, restraint on leverage, restraint on currency selection, restraint on positions, and persistence in exit plans is the minimum respect for possible major crises. But I also don't care too much about when crises and wars will break out, just like in 2023 when I thought crises would definitely spread, but the result was the beginning of this bull market. Bull markets are difficult to predict, and the timing of the same crisis is also difficult to predict. These big problems are indeed difficult to solve, but we cannot underestimate the ability of these huge economies to cover up problems. I guess both China and the United States may be thinking this way. Is the other side about to collapse? If I hold on a little longer, I didn't expect both sides to be able to hold on so well. They kicked each other many times, but both sides still swayed, but they just didn't collapse. Confrontation, escalation, easing, waiting, round after round. I feel like I still have to endure. Being too fixated on crisis is not good either, after all, the encryption industry has still ushered in its own period of opportunity. Apart from AI, which other industries dare to say better than encryption at present. Of course, encryption has opportunities, but these opportunities may not benefit every sector, project, or currency in the industry. In the encryption industry, never maintain faith in a large number of low-quality projects and currencies. This industry is not suitable for discussing faith, and one should always be vigilant. These garbage cannot represent the industry, nor even represent a period of encryption. They are just industry supplies that meet the needs of gamblers and their own wallets during a period of time. 99% of projects are destined to be industry passers-by from the concept in the founder's mind. An industry that is changing so rapidly cannot cling to crises that may only come in a year or two in the future, because in one or two years, the industry may have undergone significant changes and opportunities will multiply, which should not be missed. The industry has been somewhat stagnant in the past two years, with only the big pie moving forward, but I don't think the next two years will be like this. If a crisis really comes, it will definitely be a disaster for the cryptocurrency market, but there are also opportunities. Encryption itself is not afraid of crisis. For over a decade, regardless of whether the external market is bullish or bearish, encryption has been a stable bear market for four years, never absent, but always able to stand up without exception. The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, has never been afraid of problems in the traditional financial system because there is never a good solution when problems arise. The ultimate solution is to print money, and since the era of credit currency, the ultimate solution has always been to print money. It is estimated that this time there will be economic recession, US debt crisis, tariff crisis, and so on. Finally, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, resume QE, and countries with poor economies and unstable currencies will also print money together. Cryptocurrencies will ultimately benefit from the unrestrained printing of money, at least that's how the big cake will be. This may be my biggest belief in the cryptocurrency industry. Even if a major crisis really comes, it's just going through some pain together first, and the light will still come to encryption.