Further thinking on whether the knockoff of the new TGE will be successful or not Recently, I have gradually shifted from a 'long-term holder' to an 'active trader' to address my previous trading weaknesses. Except for the extreme panic that caused BTC/SOL/LINK to buy at the bottom that day, the large positions remained on the sidelines. However, the small positions began to frequently try short/long positions, which happened to be a closer experience of the behavior patterns of many new TGE projects. Today, we will record and share them. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ✅ The real motivation of the project party: not to do charity work Imagine you are the project team, from forming a team, finding VC, working on data, building a community, polishing the narrative, all the way to finally launching TGE... What's the picture? Of course, it's about making money, and it's about quickly cashing out and realizing it, especially for projects that don't have much profitability themselves. The current market situation, valuation, fund pressure, and renewed enthusiasm determine that most projects cannot focus on long-term narratives, but rather prioritize the realization of benefits. How to make money? Send airdrops to oneself and friends Let MM assist in smashing the plate → distribute money OTC shipment Short selling one's own token Using TGE as a cover to transport bulk cargo Repeated frequency fluctuations in the secondary market So you really can't use 'moral standards' to constrain the behavior of the project team. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🤔 Put yourself in the shoes of others: If you are the project team, after three years of hard work and exhausting your brain, the coin finally goes to @ binance. Seeing the child who plays Meme and has a daily global travel package, your own small car should also be upgraded, right? Should we change the house? Build by following your own hard work without giving any monetary rewards My brothers? Let's take another look at the current environment: No increment Buying new products won't make any money anymore VC focuses on unlocking shipments to recoup costs The market sentiment fluctuates between rises and falls, and the voice of the eternal bear market argument is becoming louder and louder Without leaving some money for the winter, what can we do to hold on until the next cycle? A more practical idea is - "This project has finally cashed out, I should prepare for the next project So@ The statement from cz-binance is very practical: there are very few projects that are truly worth long-term HODL. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ How can individual investors earn money from project partners? One word: distinguish between soft persimmons and hard persimmons, follow the trend. You can't expect them to benefit you, but you can 'trade with the flow'. Here are five judgment dimensions that I personally consider when making decisions in the secondary market: Does the project team have a plan? Is the ability to control fundraising strong? Do you have money and are you willing to spend it in the secondary market? Is Mcap/FDV/liquidity reasonable? Is the project narrative close to falsification? The two projects I have been working on the most recently are GUN and BABY, which represent two typical examples of "soft persimmons" and "hard persimmons". 🎯 Case 1: GUN - A Standard Soft Persimmon GUN, I have already written several posts before. Today, I will only emphasize a few points: No pattern: In the situation where Binance provided the lowest circulation pool in history and the market sentiment was excellent, it chose to directly sell and smash the market, which dealt a heavy blow to Binance and the market. Chip loss of control: Violent sales after TGE, control chip decline, NFT validators released from October, entering a steep unlocking curve in March next year. The project team holds a large amount of funds, but hardly spends them: protecting the market mainly relies on defense, occasionally bursting short, and disappearing in a flash. FDV is still as high as 540M, and liquidity is already in its best state. No matter how much it drops, there is not much room for it. The pure entertainment logic of GameFi is basically close to falsification, especially the mode without introducing capital games, which makes it difficult to retain attention. Conclusion: * * This is my favorite short selling variety, and even if I am trapped in the short term, I feel more at ease because I know that it will eventually be unlocked. The advantage of prolonging time is in me (opposite to BTC). 🛡️ Case 2: Baby - A Hard Persimmon with Potential Variables In contrast, Baby appears much more dangerous: Airdrop deduction: Although it has caused a lot of criticism, it is essentially a fundraising behavior. The starting point is understandable, but the criticism is not resentful. CNM (indeed caused a disaster for the staplers who believed in them before, including me. The gas fee charged in the first phase was several hundred dollars) Having more money and daring to spend: having sufficient funds in hand, daring to short sell in the second tier "real gold and silver" at critical moments. Yesterday when the air force exploded, many air forces were bombed, and a few of my friends were directly depressed due to the explosion Pattern to be verified: But it is still too early to say that their pattern is large. This Pola market may only be for short squeeze arbitrage. Whether to continue to rise in the future and whether they can break out of the Layer like state still needs to be observed. Maybe we'll just take advantage of this wave of heat to bulk cargo. It should be noted that a large number of airdropped chips are under the control of the project team, and the daily inflation of 20000 is continuous. The narrative has not been falsified yet: BTC Restaking+Security Narrative is still within the heat range, and the market is willing to give some time. My strategy: On the opening day, it was empty I realized something was wrong yesterday, there was an extra wave in my backhand Don't touch for now, wait for more signals to appear before moving ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 📌 Core conclusion: Whether the project team pulls the buck or not is not based on conscience or faith, but on the actuarial input-output ratio. They have to be accountable to the VC, the team, and themselves. Who would go to great lengths to invest money in creating wealth for individual investors? Retail investors can only understand what it wants based on its behavior, don't get involved. 📉 Operation suggestion: Observe the performance of the target during the "market rebound vs. market decline" period Check funding rates, market structure, MM reactions, and community sentiment Assess whether the project party has a genuine intention to maintain the currency price and the strength of the pallet in a non short position. Finally, you have decided on the "soft persimmon" and "hard persimmon" that you are familiar with and familiar with This way, when the market fluctuates in the future, you will know who to short and who to long.