Murphy|Sep 02, 2026 03:37
Unlike the on-chain behavior showing a positive attitude toward accumulation, the derivatives market remains mostly in a wait-and-see mode.
We know that short squeezes are the direct cause of OI shrinkage. However, when the price hovered between 77k-80k for two weeks, OI stayed flat at 440k-455k contracts, showing no signs of recovery.
The price has risen by 25%, which theoretically makes shorting more attractive. But those who dared to short at 62k are now hesitant at 78k. A reasonable explanation? 'Shorts got scared off.'
Longs aren’t chasing either. If people believed this was a trend reversal, the normal reaction would be for funding rates to turn positive and OI to rise alongside the price.
The fact that OI isn’t moving suggests that most people are still labeling this as a short squeeze rally rather than a trend reversal. They’re either waiting for a pullback or simply staying out of it.
From the perspective of identifying a cycle bottom, a rebound driven by leverage clearing and spot buying is indeed a common characteristic of bottom structures. But right now, neither longs nor shorts are willing to make the first move, reflecting the derivatives market's mindset: cautious observation.
Additionally, ELR (leverage ratio) has dropped back to around 0.26, the lowest point in nearly two years. This means there’s not much leverage left in the market to be liquidated.
In the short term, the risk of cascading liquidations is very low, and it’s unlikely we’ll see leverage-driven sharp volatility in either direction.
Perhaps the market is waiting for the next macro event to provide direction.
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