Mr. Xiaolong's Today's Perspective ——Several financial events and intrinsic driving forces that affect BTC price trends ❗ ️ The current price of Bitcoin is around 77150, falling below 777K and then rebounding to a low of 76350. However, what I have observed is that the long position of 4H is still weak, while the short position is moderately strengthening. Although ETF spot institutions continued to buy $220 million worth of BTC yesterday, long-term holders are still buying on dips. However, due to the deviation between daily volume and price, as well as the contraction of volume and energy, prices have been unable to break through upwards for several days. The market will choose to operate in the direction with the least resistance, which is a downward correction. Several financial events that have a significant impact on the BTC price trend in the remaining timeline of this week are likely to accelerate the price decline and bottom out: Wednesday: ADP Employment (20:15)+Beige Book (2:00 am). The August ADP employment report to be released tonight will be the "leading signal" for Friday's non farm payroll. In July, ADP only increased by 44000, significantly lower than expected. If August data continues to be weak, it may strengthen the narrative of a cooling job market and provide short-term support for BTC, but it will only have a short-term impact on the price. The Federal Reserve will release a brown book on economic conditions to provide the latest economic assessment for the September FOMC meeting. If the Beige Book mentions signs of economic slowdown, it may moderately ease expectations of interest rate hikes. Friday: Non farm payroll data for August (20:30), which is the biggest variable of the week. Expected to add about 55000-65000 people, with an unemployment rate of about 4.1%. Data below expectations may trigger a BTC rebound test of 80K; exceeding expectations may push prices down 75K-76K or even 73.5K. What I am particularly concerned about is the ongoing escalation of the US Iran conflict. Trump confirms that the US military has launched a new round of airstrikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude oil at $88 per barrel and Brent approaching $93 per barrel. The rise in oil prices has pushed up inflation expectations, and coupled with the probability of a September interest rate hike, it has risen to 57% -64%, forming a macro suppression on BTC. The August ADP employment report, non farm payroll data, and rising oil prices have all driven up inflation expectations, serving as external catalysts for accelerating BTC's downward trend. The core intrinsic driving force that truly triggers BTC's downward correction is: The buying power is diminishing+ Profit taking selling+ Sell the locked up plate (80K-83K)+ Bears are making efforts in the futures market. Therefore, under the combined force of external catalysts and internal driving forces, the BTC price is highly likely to experience a downward correction in the future, with the first target price of 73.5K and the second target price of 71.5K. The probability of further decline in the target price is relatively small. Food is eaten in one gulp, alcohol is also drunk in one gulp, and we are watching the development of BTC price trends as we walk. I am Mr. Xiaolong. Let's learn and communicate together, grow and become rich together!