WTI has climbed from its July low of around $68, breaking the long-term downtrend line and now sitting near $88. The technicals have turned bullish, but the $88-$92 range remains a dense resistance zone. How much higher it can go depends less on demand and more on whether geopolitical risks lead to actual supply disruptions. This rally has been driven mainly by U.S.-Iran clashes, tanker attacks, and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 1982, and the market is repricing supply risks. OPEC+ plans to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in September, but war and transportation restrictions might keep some of that increase on paper only. This could cap oil prices but won’t immediately eliminate the geopolitical premium. If WTI stabilizes above $90, inflation and rate hike expectations could rise, putting upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. Energy stocks would benefit relatively, while tech, consumer, aviation, and $BTC might face headwinds from a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity. I lean toward Trump continuing to use military pressure in September to gain leverage in negotiations while also pushing for increased production to control oil prices. He needs to suppress Iran but also doesn’t want high oil prices fueling inflation. For September, the baseline range is $82-$95. If it holds above $92 and conflicts escalate, we could see $95-$100. If negotiations resume and shipping lanes improve, prices might fall back to $80-$83. This isn’t the time to chase highs or rush to call the top. Wait for the geopolitical premium to cool off and for technical structures to weaken before identifying a turning point.