This time the US and Iran have resumed hostilities, and the reaction of oil prices is different from before The main reason for the rise in oil prices today is that the United States and Iran have continued to use force. This is the first time that the US military has retaliated against targets on Iranian soil since there has been no direct exchange of fire between the two sides in nearly a month. Iran immediately retaliated, but I also found some clues in this attack. From the perspective of oil prices, during previous wars, WTI was often above $90, and Brent was also around $95. However, this time WTI still has more than $3 to go before reaching $90, and Brent's distance from $95 is also greater than $3. It indicates that the market has indeed reintroduced the war premium, but it has not been re priced in the same way as the previous rounds of conflicts. My personal opinion is that the Hormuz arrangement being promoted by Iran and Oman, as well as Iran allowing special passage for some Iraqi oil tankers, has already shown the market the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being opened to at least some countries. Although the actual traffic volume is still very low at present, the market trading is about whether it can gradually recover in the future. Especially as long as major energy importing countries in Asia such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea can obtain relatively stable passage rights through special permits, payments, or new shipping arrangements, the pressure on global crude oil supply will significantly decrease. It is not necessary for Hormuz to return to 100% of its pre war state, as long as it can restore 60% to 70% of its previous capacity, oil prices should fall back to around $70 without any problem. In addition to the United States and Israel, it is estimated that Europe, the United Arab Emirates, and even others may have the opportunity to re-enter the open list. In the end, only ships that directly participate in military operations against Iran or are identified as enemies by Iran may be truly restricted for a long time. This model is actually very cost-effective for Iran. The cost of completely blockading Hormuz is too high, and Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and many energy importing countries in Asia will all be affected. The longer it lasts, the greater the international pressure Iran faces. But if Iran gradually resumes commercial vessel traffic while continuing to hold the power of auditing, charging, and security management, then the card of Hormuz can remain in hand forever. For oil prices, naturally they will not be too aggressive. The latest adjustment may lower my WTI short selling point from $88 to around $87, and Brant's next short selling point may be lowered from $92.5 to around $92. Short selling oil at high prices is still a cost-effective transaction. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market