Trump secures Venezuela's 65 billion barrels of oil—impact on U.S. and global oil prices Trump just announced that the U.S. has gained majority control over Venezuela's proven oil reserves of over 65 billion barrels. However, this oil won't immediately increase market supply. Venezuela's current daily production is only about 1.25 million barrels. If the U.S. truly pushes nearly $100 billion in capital into Venezuela, it would essentially revive a major oil-producing country that once had daily production exceeding 3 million barrels. For the U.S., Venezuela's oil has a major advantage: proximity. Plus, the oil quality is perfectly suited for refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. shale oil is generally lighter, and many complex refineries in Texas and Louisiana have long relied on heavy crude. So, even though the U.S. produces a lot of oil, it still needs to import large amounts of heavy crude daily. Venezuela, located just across the Caribbean, offers low transportation costs, and a significant amount of crude is already entering the U.S. If production continues to recover in the future, it will increase the supply of heavy crude for U.S. refineries, while competing with heavy crude from Canada, Mexico, and the Middle East. This would put pressure on refinery procurement costs, as well as gasoline and diesel prices. For global oil prices, if Venezuela's production recovers from the current 1.25 million barrels to 3 million barrels, it would mean an additional 2 million barrels of crude entering the global market daily. The world consumes about 100 million barrels per day. An increase of 1 to 2 million barrels may not seem like much, but oil prices are highly sensitive to marginal supply and demand. This scale is enough to shift inventory trends, influence OPEC+ production strategies, and affect market pricing of Middle Eastern supply risks. In the short term, oil prices will still depend on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. In the long term, as long as Venezuela's production exceeds 2 million barrels per day, U.S. gasoline prices will gain more cushioning, and the global oil market will have a new million-barrel-level supply source, exerting sustained pressure on oil prices. So, from a long-term perspective, the ceiling for oil price increases is actually quite limited. Right now, shorting oil at high levels doesn't make much sense. Even if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices will still decline slowly. Shorting oil remains the right move. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one platform