The inevitable path of bull bear transition: the increase of funds returning to the market Time flies by, and in the blink of an eye, the last day of August has arrived, BTC also bestowed a heavenly "blessing" on all the armies in the last week of this month. With the emergence of more and more "Niu Chu" signals (https://((((x.com)))/market_gegar/status/2091702058009420064), The attitude of market funds has become the key to whether BTC can seize the opportunity to pursue and sweep away the shadow of the bear market. // The indicator in the attached figure is the "BTC Fund Incremental Trend", and the core concept is as follows: ➡️ Used to monitor the trend of capital inflows (outflows) in the BTC market ➡️ The main calculation logic is the increase or decrease trend of realized cap Before the collapse on October 11, 2025, this indicator had a highly forward-looking warning effect, Friends interested in conducting in-depth research can refer to my previous post, which provides detailed logical explanations ： https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1975373468700184833 Addendum: In order to facilitate the observation of the 'big trend', the parameters of the indicator have been adjusted to '60 days', So that everyone can have a clearer understanding of the changes in the trend of capital growth. // As shown in the attached figure, from the perspective of the "trend of capital increment", Every cycle of BTC so far has basically followed the following pattern: Giant red appearance (large amount of capital fleeing): Market surrenders, signaling a bottoming out of the bear market Red to Green: Market funds begin to flow back, marking the transition from bull to bear Giant green appears: funds continue to flow into the market, bull market begins Remarks: The indicators themselves have a certain degree of lag, so they are more suitable for observing "long-term trends" Time goes back to the present: Since the consolidation period in early July, we can clearly see from the attached image that 'red is decreasing', During this period, funds have at least stopped flowing out or even started flowing in. The start of a bull market often requires continuous injection of market funds, There are many factors that contribute to the inflow of funds, such as the past bull bear conversion of BTC, Basically, it cannot be separated from the following pattern: one ️⃣ Falling to the extreme valuation zone, market supply significantly decreases (reluctance to sell) two ️⃣ Smart money begins to enter and attract funds three ️⃣ The first wave of market launch attracts the attention of external funds four ️⃣ External capital inflows drive a cyclical upward trend (reflexivity) In summary, as long as the "funding increment trend" indicator can maintain its regression trend in the future, Confirm the transition from red to green, while maintaining prices above STH-RP, We can basically further improve our judgment of 'Niu Chu' Dreaming back to the bear bottom of 2023: If given a chance to step back on STH-RP https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2092064431723459015 Step by step, forge ahead. That's all for today's content. In the new week, I wish everyone smooth trading // Related reading resources 83K Structure Offensive and Defensive Battle: A Trend Reversal Battle on the Arrow https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2092427053534691727 Escape of PTSD patients in bear market: The first wave of profit taking begins to digest https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2092789623487660117 Strange Turn: The proportion of 1y-3y holders begins to decline https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2089528447320428775