Mike McGlone|Aug 30, 2026 13:46
Corn Remaining Above $5 Could Rest on Oil
Declining 2026 Corn Belt yield estimates have pushed corn above $5 a bushel approaching harvest, typically a period of price pressure. Tighter supply supports corn, but as my chart shows, firm crude oil may also be needed to keep it above this threshold. Yet with household affordability a key issue ahead of midterms, President Donald Trump and Republicans are under pressure to bring down energy costs. Corn has some fundamental support against that risk: the US corn stocks-to-use ratio, at about 10%, has dropped below its five-year moving average for the first time since 2018. Corn bottomed near $3.37 that year before peaking around $8.27 in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
US corn's break-even production cost is inching above $4 a bushel, leaving less downside to its cost floor than crude, which trades near $83 a barrel vs. a break-even cost closer to $55. Adding to corn's peak-price risk is falling US natural gas.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tkdd5ekgzait {BI COMD}
#corn #soybeans #grains #crudeoil @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)
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