比特幣交易者 科幣託 crypto|8月 29, 2026 13:49
Bitcoin's "Four-Year Halving Cycle" Officially Invalidated
This is the boldest prediction we've ever made on this channel:
Bitcoin's future will no longer follow the familiar four-year cycle.
And I’m confident that time will prove this prediction right.
Over the past decade, one of the biggest advantages of the crypto market has been the "cycle."
Halving → Bull Market → Bubble → Bear Market → Bottom → Halving Again.
Even the timing of bull-to-bear transitions in past cycles has been eerily accurate.
According to the traditional four-year cycle model:
This bear market bottom should fall around October 6–13.
That's about 38 days away.
But here’s the question—
What if Bitcoin has already hit its bear market bottom ahead of schedule, and the next rally has already begun?
If that’s the case, it doesn’t just mean "this bottom came early."
It means:
The four-year halving cycle that has dominated crypto for over a decade is breaking down.
In fact, there have been signs of this for a while.
During the last bull market, we made several predictions that went against the grain at the time:
❌ There wouldn’t be the "altcoin season" everyone was hoping for.
❌ ETH wouldn’t experience the tsunami-like rally the market was fantasizing about.
❌ The late bull market wouldn’t necessarily accelerate crazily like it did in the past.
Back then, many people didn’t believe us.
But eventually, the market proved each one of these predictions right.
Because today’s Bitcoin is no longer the Bitcoin of the past.
ETF, institutional funds, public companies, Wall Street, global liquidity...
The market structure has completely changed, so why expect prices to perfectly replicate the script from ten years ago?
I believe that in the coming years, one of the biggest misconceptions in the crypto market will be:
Halving will still exist.
But the rule of "Halving = Fixed Four-Year Bull-Bear Cycle" may no longer hold.
If this time Bitcoin doesn’t wait until October’s "theoretical bottom" and reverses course early...
Then what we’re witnessing right now might not just be the end of a typical bear market.
It could be—
The end of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Era.
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