What Does Trump Need for Midterm Elections? The US, formerly the largest crude oil importer and now the world's top energy producer and a net exporter, has an election in November, inflation is a top issue and hedge funds are long. I see elevated sell-stop risks into year-end. The graphic highlights the lower highs and lows pattern in WTI crude since 2008 and a primary reason: US crude and liquid-fuel net exports surging to about 4 million barrels a day. In 2019, before the biggest money pump in history and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US imported roughly 1 MMBD, and managed-money net-longs in petroleum futures averaged 12% of open interest. Fast forward to 2025: Exports averaged 3 MMBD, and speculator net-longs dropped to roughly 7%. Now specs are about 10% net long on the back of the Iran war, and the US crude surplus is widening, notably due to the price bounce. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tk9r08rkv2u3 {BI COMD} #crudeoil #futures @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)