Brothers, the most important thing for Jackson Hole this time is not whether to raise interest rates in September or not. What really matters is that the Federal Reserve has pulled back the market's fantasy of interest rate cuts. Walsh's speech released three signals: Firstly, the 2% inflation target is still a hard constraint. As long as core inflation does not significantly return to its target, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to concede early. Secondly, the US economy is not weak enough to be rescued. Employment, consumption, and corporate investment have not collapsed completely, so the logic behind the market's desire for "immediate easing" is not so smooth. Thirdly, do not commit to raising interest rates, but retain the option of raising interest rates. This sentence is the most harsh. It's not just about raising interest rates, but telling the market: don't set the script for the Federal Reserve in advance. So the market reaction is very direct: Short term US bond yields are rising, the US dollar is strengthening, US stocks are under pressure, gold and silver are falling, and the probability of a rate hike in September is also significantly increasing. Behind this is actually an expected repricing. In the past, the market traded that inflation would slowly decrease, the economy would not collapse, and the Federal Reserve would eventually loosen its grip. Now the market needs to reconsider: if inflation becomes more sticky, will the Federal Reserve maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time than expected, or even add them again? For assets, the impact is also clear: Short term pressure on US Treasury bonds; The US dollar has short-term support; Gold is suppressed by real interest rates in the short term; Highly overvalued growth stocks are prone to volatility; AI and technology stocks need to return to fundamental differentiation. But I don't think we can simply be bearish here. The more the Federal Reserve emphasizes data, the more important CPI, PCE, and employment become later on. As soon as the data starts to weaken, the market will resume trading on loose expectations. Next, let's focus on four things: Core PCE/CPI; Degree of inflation diffusion; Cooling rate of employment; Credit spreads and stock market performance. The direction is biased towards eagles, with flexibility in actions, and the system is beginning to shift towards "speaking less and doing more". The fluctuations in September may be bigger than many people think.