金色财经
金色财经|Aug 29, 2026 06:33
[Analyst: Waller reignites September rate hike possibility, but key factors depend on September's Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI data] Reported by Jinse Finance, on August 29, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday evening was considered quite hawkish. Waller said what the market expected him to say regarding forward guidance, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance and thus refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller emphasized that combating inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in detail. However, he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve's target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced expectations for the Federal Reserve's September decision, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike jumping from 30% to approximately 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will still be a Nonfarm Payrolls report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the leadership of the new chair, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely dampen market expectations for a September rate hike. (Jin10)
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