Walsh is still hawkish. Got in on NVIDIA shorts and managed to profit. Let’s see if it can break below 210, then I’ll close the position. As of now, the probability of a September rate hike is around 57%. Fear is spreading, U.S. stock indices are all down, and Bitcoin has also dropped below key levels. We’re not debating whether there will be a rate hike (don’t be fooled by the high probability, there’s still room for speculation). Let’s just talk about trading strategies for different scenarios moving forward: 1️⃣ Based on the current macro environment, expecting a bull market reversal is unrealistic. Unless oil prices plummet and we get exceptionally good inflation data showing a downward trend, making it hard for Walsh to refuse and increasing rate cut expectations—but that seems unlikely right now. 2️⃣ Key event timeline leading up to the 9/17 FOMC meeting: - First and foremost, oil prices - 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls - 9/10 PPI - 9/11 CPI If we approach the meeting with September rate hike expectations solidifying, risk markets will continue to panic. If rate hike expectations gradually fade, markets will slowly recover from the declines caused by those expectations. For investors, guessing whether there will be a rate hike is really tough. If you’ve already entered swing trades, it might be time to take profits. Personally, I’m still holding NVIDIA and oil shorts. As for Bitcoin shorts, I’ve mentioned before that I’d short near the $8k range, and that’s worked out well. I’ve talked about this in previous posts. Now it’s all about watching those key event timelines and adjusting strategies accordingly. PS: In the end, I still feel like there won’t be a rate hike in September—just my subjective opinion. DYOR