Fed Chair Waller's speech has concluded. Here's a summary of the key points: Tone of the speech: Hawkish . Waller made it clear that inflation remains too high, and the primary focus should still be on prices. The 2% inflation target is "firm and fixed," and if inflation doesn't quickly fall back to 2%, the Fed "still has a lot of work to do." Key takeaways: 1. Inflation stance: No signs of improvement in the trend. Although recent PCE and CPI data were better than expected, it "doesn't mean the underlying inflation trend has shown substantial improvement." He bluntly stated: "I need to be convinced that core inflation is clearly and rapidly falling toward the target level. If not, we must act." 2. Current monetary policy: Refuses to acknowledge it as "restrictive." He explicitly said, "It's hard to describe the overall financial environment as restrictive." Credit and loan markets "show almost no effects of monetary policy tightening," and prices won't stabilize on their own. 3. Forward guidance: Declares it "outdated." Waller believes that forward guidance, born during the financial crisis, is "no longer suitable in a normal economic environment." Overuse could "create ambiguity under the guise of clarity" and may lead to missteps. He also raised concerns about the "hall of mirrors" effect: markets heavily rely on Fed guidance, while the Fed, in turn, uses market price signals for judgment, potentially overlooking emerging changes. 4. Economic assessment: U.S. economy remains strong. The labor market aligns with full employment, the economy "seems to have strengthened," and corporate capital expenditures are rising rapidly, with AI being a major driver. After the speech, market expectations for a September rate hike rose from about 35% to around 40%-50%. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since July, the dollar index spiked, and spot gold plunged roughly $50 in the short term. Bitcoin, however, remained in a narrow range, seemingly indifferent to this information. Summary: Waller's speech aligns with your expectations—hawkish. The market has already reacted to this. As I predicted, the direction is determined by volume and capital structure; the speech only affects short-term fluctuations and doesn't change the medium- to short-term correction pressure.