**[Waller's Jackson Hole Debut Preview: Wall Street's Biggest Question—His "Reaction Function"]** Odaily Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve Chair Waller is set to deliver a highly anticipated public speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, marking a significant moment since taking office. Currently, the U.S. PCE inflation rate remains at 3.7%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. U.S. Treasury yields also remain elevated, while the market lacks a clear consensus on when and under what conditions the Fed might further adjust monetary policy. Waller has consistently aimed to reduce forward guidance, encouraging the market to interpret data independently. However, what Wall Street most wants to understand now is precisely his "reaction function." If this speech continues to focus solely on long-term topics like productivity and demographics, the bond market may interpret the silence itself as a policy signal. At present, the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at about one-third. Given Waller's deliberate effort to downplay traditional forward guidance since taking office, the focus of this speech will likely center on how he assesses inflation and what changes in inflation, employment, and economic growth would prompt rate hikes, cuts, or maintaining the current rate. Market participants believe that if Waller delivers a clearer hawkish signal, it could further push up short-term rates and U.S. Treasury yields. Conversely, if he avoids discussing the current policy path and focuses more on long-term topics like productivity and AI, it may be interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. Additionally, the impact of AI on inflation could also be a key focus of this speech. Waller has long been optimistic about AI's potential to boost productivity and help reduce long-term inflation. However, the market believes that the current AI investment boom is also driving up costs for construction labor and computer chips. This Jackson Hole speech could become a pivotal moment in reshaping expectations for September's policy decisions and the pricing of the global bond market.