Today's market (1) This morning, the SFP overlay entered the empty space of the entrance model . (Figure 1) I stepped deeper than I expected TP has become a bit aggressive, with only 30% remaining . 80k failed to stand firm again Okay, then continue watching . ---------- First, let's update the blockchain. There are a few points in the past few days: 1) Short term investors are still continuously cashing in profits and taking profits The daily realized profits are in the range of 600-700 million .. This wave of rise indicates that there are still people continuing to sell, and the price is rising within the real selling pressure, not an unlimited virtual increase. The buying market for spot stocks is still there, as is the ETF, maintaining a net inflow of 200-300 million yuan per day. 2) On the contrary, more long-term old coins have been sold at a loss recently Those who have held for more than 155 days and have higher costs, take advantage of this rebound to reduce losses and leave. 3) The currency is indeed leaving the exchange. The net outflow of the exchange has been -4166/-1079/-6944/-5441 for four consecutive days. The BTC balance on the exchange decreased from 2.7252 million on August 22 to 2.7068 million, a decrease of 18336 in five days. So from the perspective of the chain, overall it's still similar to the previous few days .. Someone is selling, the selling pressure is not small, short-term investors are taking profits, and new money (ETF) is taking over. You can understand this as distributing (the group of short-term customers who bought at a low price of over 60000 yuan) But whether the price will really go down after distribution depends on whether the subsequent buying orders can catch this wave . At least from this week's perspective, this short-term profit taking distribution has been going on for a week The price has been on the rise this week . But from the perspective of the exchange, now the giant whale has actively placed selling orders above the current price. When it comes to the order section later, we will talk about it ---------- Another point is that recently Coinbase's absolute premium has become positive (different from the real premium I used to see every day after deducting the USDT USDC exchange rate) The reason for becoming a regular employee is actually due to the exchange rate issue between USDT and USDC. USDT has recently appreciated. (More people are exchanging USDC for USDT) From historical backtesting, the appreciation of USDT tends to favor the strengthening of BTC. (Let's talk about it separately tonight, let's just talk about the conclusion here without expanding.) -------------- In recent days, my two on chain bull and bear models have remained unchanged and continue to be strong (Figure 2) ------------- From the URPD perspective (Figure 3), the area around 84k is still the closest range of chip intensive pressure. The next article will start discussing the situation of order flow