Fed Sept hold odds now at 66%. Today all eyes on Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. 3 scenarios: 🔻 Dovish → bitcoin:native breaks 83K, ETH, NVDA , PLTR rally 🔺 Hawkish (hike back on the table, inflation risk first) → DXY up, GLD, TLT, TSLA under pressure ➖ Neutral → risk assets get a breather, focus shifts to the payrolls benchmark revision due at the same time Behind it all, the Fed is split by mixed data. 👉 Core PCE has run above the 2% target for months, so hawks fear inflation expectations are slipping and want to act early. 👉 The labor market hasn't clearly cracked, so doves argue the economy is already cooling and a rushed hike could kill the recovery.(BloFin Research)