飞凡|Aug 28, 2026 01:41
BTC getting stuck around 80k for a few days is within expectations.
Since August 17, the U.S. BTC ETF has seen a strong wave of capital inflows, with daily amounts of approximately $298M, $189M, $517M, $606M, $308M, $338M, $314M, and $232M, until things noticeably cooled off on the 27th.
BTC's daily new miner supply is 450 BTC, which, at 80k per BTC, is only $36M per day. But this isn’t the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of BTC’s circulating supply last moved at prices concentrated between 80k–82k, with almost 5% of that near 80k alone. This is currently one of the largest single cost-concentration zones.
Even the average cost for historical ETF investors is concentrated in the 80k–82k range.
A lot of people might think, with such massive ETF inflows, how is BTC still struggling to break past 80k? But my view is the opposite. If over $2B in ETF buying comes in and BTC suddenly skyrockets to 90k, I’d actually worry that the market has already overextended itself.
80k can be seen as the most critical consolidation zone of this bull cycle. The moment macro sentiment turns bullish, BTC will quickly break upward again.
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