Many people still do not believe that the bear market has ended and the bull market has started ❗ ️ My personal prediction is that the bottom of Bitcoin's bear market will be at 57800, and the bear market is highly likely to have ended at 57800. The bull market is already in its initial stage. However, I believe that the prediction of 'the bear market has ended and the bull market has started' is basically correct, but two prerequisites need to be added. My judgment is based on three levels: 1. Technical structure: Natural trading theory and weekly level have confirmed market trends and structural reversals. The price dropped to the 0.618 position of the large cycle Fibonacci retracement of 126800 to 15500, which is around $58000, very accurately falling at the 0.618 position. From the perspective of natural trading theory, the 0.618 position, which is around $58000, belongs to the strong gravity level, which is traditionally referred to as the strong support level. The weekly closing price is 50 weeks above the EMA (approximately 77000-78000), marking the first time since November 2025. Combining the bullish divergence formed by the weekly RSI around 57800, and the price rebounding from the bottom by more than 25%, the technical aspect has completed the upgrade from "rebound" to "preliminary reversal". 57800 precisely touched the 200 week moving average area, which historically marked the bottom of bear markets accurately in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. The highly standardized 5-wave downward adjustment structure at the weekly level has been completed, but there has been no expected final drop or prolonged wave. Prices have risen directly under the pressure of orders from Trump and the White House! 2. On chain and fund side: Funds continue to flow in. The Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of over $3 billion in August, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026. The CryptoQuant Bull Score index jumped from 30 to 80, with 8 out of 10 indicators bullish. The Giant Whale Wallet has accumulated 222000 BTC holdings since its historical high. These are not individual investor behaviors, but continuous buying by large funds. 3. Macro and Regulatory: The worst stage has passed. Although PCE exceeded expectations, it is no longer out of control. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has loosened, the cycle of interest rate hikes has been confirmed to have ended, and the most tight phase of monetary policy has passed. The proposal of the SEC compliance framework marks a shift in US cryptocurrency regulation from "law enforcement for regulation" to clear rules, and although the CLARITY Act has been delayed, the direction is clear. Unless a global financial crisis occurs and the US stock market continues to plummet, the Bitcoin bull market will not fail! If you want to be 100% certain that a new bull market for BTC has started, there are two prerequisites that can earn points: Premise 1: 82000-83000 requires confirmation of volume. Galaxy Research's standard is a weekly closing of 82470 (50 week moving average), which is the final signal technically confirming the end of the bear market. There is still about 3-5% space between 79000-80000 and 82000, and this breakthrough needs to be completed. If 82000 breaks through in volume and the weekly closing is confirmed, the conclusion of "bull market start" will be upgraded from "high probability" to "confirmed". If repeatedly obstructed, it may take some time for the oscillation to accumulate momentum. Premise 2: "Bull market initiation" ≠ "main uptrend". The typical feature of the early stage of a bull market is "two in, one out", repeatedly stepping back to confirm the bottom, rather than a vertical upward trend. There are a large number of trapped and profitable stocks near 82000 that need to be digested, and this process cannot be achieved overnight. There is still a possibility of a short-term pullback to 77000-78000 or even 73500-75000, which is a normal confirmation of a retracement in the early stages of a bull market and does not change the medium-term direction. 57800 is the bottom of this bear market, and the bear market has ended. The bull market has started, but it is still in its initial stage. A truly comprehensive bull market requires a volume breakthrough of 82000-83000 to be finally confirmed. Before confirmation, short-term stepping back is a normal structure and also an opportunity to get on board! There is still a way to go between the end of the bear market and the main uptrend of the bull market, and this road is called 'repeated confirmation'. The bull market came to an end amidst excitement and was born amidst doubt!