Three dimensional integrated trading system | BTC night on chain data analysis I just analyzed and predicted the short-term trend and direction from the long short volatility curve, and now I will analyze and predict from the on chain data. BTC has been repeatedly blocked below 80000, and on chain data reveals the true state of the long short game. ETFs continue to buy, but long-term holders continue to take profits. Next, I will break down the reasons and financial game situation from the on chain data. 1、 There is a 'supply wall' above 80K Glassnode data shows significant resistance levels around $80800 and $82300. Within the broader range of $82000-83000, multiple resistance levels overlap to form a "supply wall" composed of three forces: One is that long-term holders who built positions at high levels in the early stages sell off in the unwinding range; The second is the dense limit sell orders on the order book, according to KuCoin's report, the 80000-81000 range is the main resistance zone; However, the latest order book data shows that a large amount of entrusted buying orders has appeared, as shown in Figure 2. The third is that the funds from the previous bottom fishing are being profited from. So, the price may seem strong, but the bullish power is diminishing. 2、 Long term holders are continuously cashing in profits According to CryptoQuant data, after BTC rose over 25% last week, a large number of long-term holders have transferred their assets to the exchange for liquidation. SOPR has rebounded to 1.48, a recent high, indicating a significant increase in profit realization activities. CryptoQuant analysis indicates that SOPR remains at a high level of around 1.4, the highest level since July 25th. As BTC stabilizes around 79500, most holders are in a profitable state, which poses a potential resistance for further upward movement. 3、 ETFs are still being bought, but their marginal power is weakening ETFs have had net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with a net inflow of $232 million on Wednesday. The cumulative inflow in August exceeded $3 billion, making it the strongest month since 2026. But there are two details worth noting: the net assets of ETFs increased from about $77 billion in mid August to about $99 billion, with most of the growth coming from the rise in BTC prices rather than new funds; See Figure 1. On August 20th, the inflow reached a peak of $600 million, but on Wednesday it fell back to $232 million, indicating a weakening of marginal buying power. 4、 Moderate differentiation exists in both long and short directions The continuous buying of ETFs provides spot support, but long-term holders take profits around 81000, forming structural selling pressure. The two directions are not consistent. One party is buying and the other is selling, causing BTC to repeatedly be blocked around 80000. Summary of on chain signals: The medium-term direction is bullish (with continuous net inflows into ETFs), but short-term selling pressure comes from profit taking and supply walls, and the marginal strength of ETFs is weakening. The range of 82000-83000 is the real resistance test, and breaking through requires stronger buying power or weaker selling power. 5、 Summary of core judgments Market qualitative analysis: After reaching a high of 81270, it retraced and fluctuated at a high level in the range of 78500-80000. Mid term bullish structure is complete, short-term sentiment cools down. There is a high probability of narrow fluctuations and building momentum in the future, and prices are unlikely to directly rise or plummet. I estimate that the price will fluctuate and accumulate for several days between 75000 and 81500, and then continue to rise and break through. Long short contradiction: Long position: ETF has had net inflows for 8 consecutive days, with a cumulative total of over 3 billion US dollars in August; 50 week EMA on the weekly line station; BTC maintains relative resilience around 80K; Short position: PCE exceeded expectations (3.7%), easing the narrative of interest rate cuts; Long term holders continue to take profits around 81K; The Fear Greed Index 71 is in a greedy state. Current status: Marginal weakening of energy but unconfirmed depletion; The price is waiting for direction within the range of 78500-80000; Both long and short signals have not been triggered. Key observations: ① Can the support range of 78000-78500 be held (short-term structural watershed) ② Vosh's speech (Friday night at 22:00) direction, if the pigeon is biased, it will boost the breakthrough, and if the eagle is biased, it will trigger a pullback ③ Can 80000 increase volume and stabilize Price deduction: If the price can rebound to around 73500, it is an ideal entry point. However, this is an ideal price trend that may not necessarily be achievable in reality. See Figure 3. Operation suggestion: There is currently no clear direction signal, do not bet on one side. There is a low multiple order moving stop loss below 77000; Wait for the rebound of 77000-78000 to stabilize before intervening, or patiently wait to see if the price can rebound to around 73500 before intervening.