TraderS | 缺德道人|Aug 27, 2026 05:35
If we simplify NVIDIA NVDA's business model to the extreme, it's essentially a company that sells cards. The more cards they sell, the higher their net profit margin, the more money they make, and the higher their stock price goes.
So, whether they can sell more cards boils down to two factors: whether downstream AI application demand is strong enough, and whether competitors will also release cards to split the sales.
From the current user experience, AI computing power demand is undoubtedly strong. Until the average person can easily access and utilize computing power, there will be a shortage. But whether this usage value translates into commercial value, and whether it's already priced into the stock, is a subjective and divisive topic. This is also why Capex and financing capabilities are so highly valued by the market—after all, just talking about it isn't enough; you have to spend money to make it happen.
Additionally, the fact that more companies are starting to develop their own chips and the Chinese market remains inaccessible has effectively capped the imagination for NVIDIA's production potential.
From the technical structure of the chart, this time it's still an event-driven rally rather than a structural reversal. Currently, the breakeven range for straddle options expiration is roughly $197.67–$222.33, which happens to align with the post-market high. So, I chose to short one position. Only if the stock price completely breaks through the $225–$228 resistance can we look at the next range. But with the likelihood of the Fed taking a hawkish stance soon, shorting at these high levels clearly has a better chance of winning.
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