TraderS | 缺德道人|Aug 27, 2026 02:48
NVIDIA truly remains the strict father of AI stocks, leading a collective rebound with its little brothers after hours.
But if you look closely, the stock initially dropped right after the earnings report was released. It wasn’t until CFO Kress mentioned during the earnings call that FY2028 revenue is expected to grow by 70% that sentiment shifted.
Comparing the earnings data to prior expectations, it did exceed them, but there wasn’t any extreme upside:
- Revenue: $96.2 billion, market expectation was around $92.2 billion;
- Adjusted EPS: $2.22, expectation was around $2.10;
- Data center revenue: $89 billion, expectation was around $85.1 billion;
- Next quarter revenue guidance: $108 billion, higher than the consensus estimate of around $104.2 billion, and this doesn’t include any revenue from Chinese data center computing.
For the "storage trio" (memory stocks), the most important positive news came during the earnings call: due to skyrocketing prices of memory and other components, gross margins might drop to 71%-72% in Q4. This essentially confirms that NVIDIA is transferring part of its profits to upstream suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron.
Looking at the results, the 70% growth guidance did indeed secure this stock price rally, but it also consumed future expectations. After all, performance can’t always exceed expectations forever. But who can predict the future? Using time to buy space and supporting the stock price with methods that can’t be immediately disproven is understandable. Get through the current challenges first, then figure out new breakthroughs later (like next month’s summit with China’s leadership).
However, once the 70% growth is announced, it gradually shifts from being an incremental surprise to a baseline expectation. In the coming quarters, the market will assess this metric’s performance, checking the results and order statuses of major clients like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. If there’s any deviation from expectations, it will be reflected in the stock price ahead of time.
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