Looking at the market from a different angle — The average withdrawal price from exchanges When BTC is withdrawn from exchanges, it leaves a record on the blockchain. By calculating the average withdrawal price across all exchanges, we can estimate the overall cost basis of the market. The logic here is: we assume the time BTC is purchased on an exchange is relatively close to the time it’s withdrawn; therefore, the cost is approximately the price at that moment. So, can you guess what the average cost will be for all BTC withdrawn from exchanges by 2026? $72,000 (the green line in the chart) — this is a key figure. Why? Because, looking at the past two cycles, after the first wave of recovery from the bear market bottom, the pullback always found a new supply-demand balance around this level. For example, after a mini bull run in December 2019, the first pullback landed near the "2019 average withdrawal cost from exchanges (blue line)," with a slight dip below. As for the 3/12 crash that followed, that was a special case, so let’s set that aside. Another example: in March, June, and September of 2023, the three pullbacks all landed near the "2023 average withdrawal cost from exchanges," again with slight dips below. Do you think this is just a coincidence? In my view, if this represents the "true cost of the market" in the near term, then it’s easy to understand why selling pressure weakens once prices drop below the cost basis. By now, you should understand why we say $72,000, or around $70,000, is a critical level. If it breaks directly below this level, could it mean something has disrupted the optimism of the "bull return" narrative again? (Note: This line is dynamic and changes over time, so it needs to be recalibrated periodically.)