Translate last night's re deduction of the recent trend of the US stock market: If the three prerequisites of oil price decline, long-term bond yield decline, and Walsh's statement of no hawkishness are all met: 1) In early September, the easing of tensions between the US and Iran, the decline in oil prices, and the intervention of Besent dominated. The easing of market trading and the reduction of valuation pressure, coupled with Nvidia's unexpected financial report today, especially its strong guidance, make it highly likely that the market will strengthen in the near future. Of course, if one of the first three conditions is not met, the probability of the market returning to turbulence and valuation friction increases again. 2) In mid to late September, the combination of yield, Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, and midterm elections (Iran and the economic and livelihood issues brought about by AI infrastructure should be the focus of the election topics) began, and some funds sought refuge, which may lead to increased market volatility; 3) In October, Anthropic's potential IPO, election hedging, and bond supply jointly created a high volatility adjustment, 4) If further verification is provided in the third quarter financial report: AI revenue can continue to exceed capital expenditures, non coding commercialized revenue is the second growth engine, AI project ROIC can exceed new capital costs, and backlog orders can be converted into revenue and cash beyond expectations. From a personal perspective, this is highly likely to be verified. At the same time, political uncertainty will significantly decrease after the midterm elections, so that market sentiment and expectations can truly be repaired. Of course, this will not be a strict sequential relay as mentioned above, but rather a gradual transition of dominant factors, so time is only a rough framework. Reference path: 1) Recently, there has been a rebound or at least maintaining risk appetite. The decline in oil prices and no longer reaching new highs in yields provide clear support for overvalued technology stocks. Yesterday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/209243434480793614? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has discussed the possible turning point of the US Iran game; 2) Long term bond yields are more likely to enter a high platform rather than continue to decline significantly. So it is a periodic peak. Besant can suppress the disorderly surge, but cannot eliminate the deficit, treasury bond supply and AI bond issuance. Yesterday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2092465021867745338? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A discusses the possibility of a temporary peak in US Treasury bonds. 3) Then came Walsh's speech, hoping to at least not hawk; 4) As the easiest oil and bond prices are priced, the market gradually shifts its pricing focus to Nvidia and Q3 big tech financial reports, AI capital return rates, fiscal financing, mid-term elections, and possibly Authropic's IPO; 5) The election risk will not suddenly take over, but will gradually increase in weight from September, and may become a more important source of volatility thereafter. The important turning point for observing the market in the following sequence is: Can the new easing news between the US and Iran continue to lower oil prices, lower real interest rates, and expand the width of the US stock market's rise. As long as the answer is still affirmative, the first stage of the transaction has not ended; Once the good news begins to fade away, the market's main focus will shift faster towards fiscal supply, midterm elections, and possible mega IPOs. Overall, it should be viewed from this perspective: Macro determines short-term valuation and pace; The performance of cloud factories determines the trend of the AI market; Application diffusion and ROIC determine the next round of upward space. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'