In the past two days, short selling oil has started to make profits one after another. Although it is still unstable, it also indicates that the market's expectations for oil prices are not high. The market's attention to the war between the United States and Iran is not much, and the focus has begun to be on Iran's gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the end, it is very likely that the route between Iran and Oman will be operated by charging fees, and non blacklisted countries will pay fees. Although Hormuz cannot be fully opened, the traffic volume is likely to reach 70% of the previous level. This direction is now getting closer and closer to reality. On August 26th, Reuters quoted a spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as saying that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on the control division and income distribution of the Strait of Hormuz. The plan disclosed by the Associated Press is to establish a temporary commercial route first, and then continue to discuss a permanent shipping mechanism within 30 to 60 days. The recent decline in oil prices is also related to the increase in trading volume of Hormuz in the market. For Iran, this plan is actually very cost-effective. Continuing to blockade Hormuz for a long time, Iran itself will not receive much income and will force Gulf countries to accelerate the construction of alternative shipping routes. After opening up some routes, China, India, Iraq, and other countries not blacklisted by Iran can continue to travel, while Iran and Oman charge fees, and the United States, Israel, and some hostile countries are still restricted. Iran retains the bargaining chip of Hormuz while also gaining new income through shipping, while also easing the current severe economic pressure domestically. If it really runs in this direction in the end, my judgment on oil will not change much. As long as Hormuz can steadily restore 60-70% of its throughput, there is no need for the market to wait until the United States and Iran completely cease hostilities before lowering the war premium on oil. Recently, the price of Bitcoin: native has been relatively stable. My personal dual currency financial management is continuing to execute, and the low buying price has risen to $75000, which is currently the highest price I think I may buy. If it is any higher, I will think about it, after all, the reason for the rise of Bitcoin this time has not been fully understood. In addition, the focus of AI and semiconductor is on Nvidia's financial report in the early morning. Today's core PCE data is still acceptable and meets market expectations. The rest is Nvidia and Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market